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8/30/2010 - $DJI - THE VULCAN REPORT Review of YM - DOW JONES MINI($5) Continuous (@:YMc1#I) as of Friday, August 27, 2010

THE VULCAN REPORT
Review of YM - DOW JONES MINI($5) Continuous (@:YMc1#I)
as of Friday, August 27, 2010


Today's Price Action


Change  174.0000 (1.75%) prices closed higher than they opened.  with strong Bids going into the close.This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened.  If the candle appears when prices are "low," it may be the first sign of a bottom.  If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area , the long white candle adds credibility to the support.  Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.


An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle's real body completely contains the previous black candle's real body).  The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with YM - DOW JONES MINI($5) Continuous).  It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.


If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend, it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top.  The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle's real body.


     MARKET SENTIMENT
  
PulseScan Swing Vix


PulseScan:    -36.74
Swing Vix:    -37.68


The Market Pulse is negative since it is trading below its zero signal line.The PulseScan crossed above the Swing Vix creating a UP Trend Channel as of    0 period(s) ago.This means that positive momentum has entered the market. Expect sideways to higher prices within the next 3-5 days However, the Swing Vix just crossed above -39 from a bottoming formation. This is a bullish sign.  
A buy or sell signal is generated when the Swing Vix moves out of an overbought/oversold area.  


*The last signal was a Over-Sold Buy  0 period(s) Ago.
The Swing Vix does not currently show any Failure Swings.The Swing Vix and price are not diverging.
      
  *Since the last Swing Vix signal, YM - DOW JONES MINI($5) Continuous's price has been unchanged, and has ranged from a high of 10,146.0000 to a low of 9,920.0000.


     MOMENTUM


     MARKET TREND - Currently the TREND is .There is currently no trend reading at this time.


        TREND STRENGTH - WEAK - RANGE BOUND  (Prices have ceased trending and have become consolidated at this time) The market has put in a short term bottom. This means that the bears are liquidating short positions thus taking some profit off the table.,


TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT
The close is currently Below it's PulseWave Cycle TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 10,346.9043
The close is currently Below it's Long Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 10,128.8262
The close is currently Below  it's Intermediate Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 10,318.5313 
The close is currently Below  it's Short Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 10,164.4678 


INTRADAY PRICE PROJECTIONS
RESISTANCE 10,095.1504
SUPPORT 9,970.8496


WEEKLY PULSE WAVE PRICE PROJECTIONS
PulseWave BreakOut RESISTANCE 10,456.0000
PulseWave BreakOut SUPPORT 9,914.0000


Long term Trend Line resistance is currently at - 10,346.9043
Long term Trend Line support is currently at - 9,435.7998
BEAR MARKET DOWNTREND - (12-18mo)  PRICE TARGET = 7,613.5898


DEFLATED BUBBLE PHASE I  - (24-36mo) PRICE DESTRUCTION TARGET = 5,791.3799
DEFLATED BUBBLE PHASE 2 - (42-60mo) (PANIC SELLING EXTREME FEAR) PRICE DESTRUCTION TARGET = 3,969.1699
DEFLATED BUBBLE PHASE 3  - (72mo+) (THE STOCK WILL PROBABLY BE DELISTED AND/OR FILE FOR BK 11) PRICE DESTRUCTION TARGET = 2,146.9600


VOLATILITY
On 8/27/2010, YM - DOW JONES MINI($5) Continuous closed   
above the lower band by 26.8%.

Risk Disclosure


General Advice Disclosure: Please note that the advice contained herein is general advice and is for the purposes of education only. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options, stocks, stock options and forex currencies can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You are reminded that past performance is no guarantee or reliable indication of future results. It has not been prepared taking into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.You should therefore assess whether the advice is appropriate to your individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. You should do this before making an investment decision based on this general advice. You can either make the assessment yourself or seek the help of a professional adviser. This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. The Vulcan Report accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.


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BULLS make money... BEARS make money.... PIGS get slaughtered!


"TAKE WHAT YOU CAN .........GIVE NOTHING BACK"!!

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8/25/2010 - Bancor: The Name Of The Global Currency That A Shocking IMF Report Is Proposing Published on 08-24-2010

By Michael Snyder - BLN Contributing Writer

Sometimes there are things that are so shocking that you just do not want to report them unless they can be completely and totally documented.  Over the past few years, there have been many rumors about a coming global currency, but at times it has been difficult to pin down evidence that plans for such a currency are actually in the works.  Not anymore.  A paper entitled “Reserve Accumulation and International Monetary Stability” by the Strategy, Policy and Review Department of the IMF recommends that the world adopt a global currency called the “Bancor” and that a global central bank be established to administer that currency.  The report is dated April 13, 2010 and a full copy can be read here.  Unfortunately this is not hype and it is not a rumor.  This is a very serious proposal in an official document from one of the mega-powerful institutions that is actually running the world economy.  Anyone who follows the IMF knows that what the IMF wants, the IMF usually gets.  So could a global currency known as the “Bancor” be on the horizon?  That is now a legitimate question.

So where in the world did the name “Bancor” come from?  Well, it turns out that ”Bancor” is the name of a hypothetical world currency unit once suggested by John Maynard Keynes.  Keynes was a world famous British economist who headed the World Banking Commission that created the IMF during the Breton Woods negotiations.

The Wikipedia entry for “Bancor” puts it this way….

The bancor was a World Currency Unit of clearing that was proposed by John Maynard Keynes, as leader of the British delegation and chairman of the World Bank commission, in the negotiations that established the Bretton Woods system, but has not been implemented.

The IMF report referenced above proposed naming the coming world currency unit the “Bancor” in honor of Keynes.

So what about Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)?  Over the past couple of years, SDRs have been touted as the coming global currency.  Well, the report does envision making SDRs “the principal reserve asset” as we move towards a global currency unit….

“As a complement to a multi-polar system, or even—more ambitiously—its logical end point, a greater role could be considered for the SDR.”

However, the report also acknowledges that SDRs do have some serious limitations.  Since the value of SDRs are closely tied to national currencies, anything affecting those currencies will affect SDRs as well.

Right now, SDRs are made up of a basket of currencies.  The following is a breakdown of the components of an SDR….

*U.S. Dollar (44 percent)

*Euro (34 percent)

*Yen (11 percent)

*Pound (11 percent)

The IMF report recognizes that moving to SDRs is only a partial move away from the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency and urges the adoption of a currency unit that would be truly international.  The truth is that SDRs are clumsy and cumbersome.  For now, SDRs must still be reconverted back into a national currency before they can be used, and that really limits their usefulness according to the report….

“A limitation of the SDR as discussed previously is that it is not a currency. Both the SDR and SDR-denominated instruments need to be converted eventually to a national currency for most payments or interventions in foreign exchange markets, which adds to cumbersome use in transactions. And though an SDR-based system would move away from a dominant national currency, the SDR’s value remains heavily linked to the conditions and performance of the major component countries.”

So what is the answer?

Well, the IMF report believes that the adoption of a true global currency administered by a global central bank is the answer.

The authors of the report believe that it would be ideal if the “Bancor” would immediately be used as currency by many nations throughout the world, but they also acknowledge that a more “realistic” approach would be for the “Bancor” to circulate alongside national currencies at first….

“One option is for bancor to be adopted by fiat as a common currency (like the euro was), an approach that would result immediately in widespread use and eliminate exchange rate volatility among adopters (comparable, for instance, to Cooper 1984, 2006 and the Economist, 1988). A somewhat less ambitious (and more realistic) option would be for bancor to circulate alongside national currencies, though it would need to be adopted by fiat by at least some (not necessarily systemic) countries in order for an exchange market to develop.”

So who would print and administer the “Bancor”?

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Well, a global central bank of course.  It would be something like the Federal Reserve, only completely outside the control of any particular national government….

“A global currency, bancor, issued by a global central bank (see Supplement 1, section V) would be designed as a stable store of value that is not tied exclusively to the conditions of any particular economy. As trade and finance continue to grow rapidly and global integration increases, the importance of this broader perspective is expected to continue growing.”

In fact, at one point the IMF report specifically compares the proposed global central bank to the Federal Reserve….

“The global central bank could serve as a lender of last resort, providing needed systemic liquidity in the event of adverse shocks and more automatically than at present. Such liquidity was provided in the most recent crisis mainly by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which however may not always provide such liquidity.”

So is that what we really need?

A world currency administered by an international central bank modeled after the Federal Reserve?

Not at all.

As I have written about previously, the Federal Reserve has devalued the U.S. dollar by over 95 percent since it was created and the U.S. government has accumulated the largest debt in the history of the world under this system.

So now we want to impose such a system on the entire globe?

The truth is that a global currency (whether it be called the “Bancor” or given a different name entirely) would be a major blow to national sovereignty and would represent a major move towards global government.

Considering how disastrous the Federal Reserve system and other central banking systems around the world have been, why would anyone suggest that we go to a global central banking system modeled after the Federal Reserve?

Let us hope that the “Bancor” never sees the light of day.

However, the truth is that there are some very powerful interests that are absolutely determined to create a global currency and a global central bank for the global economy that we now live in.

It would be a major mistake to think that it can’t happen.

http://blacklistednews.com/?news_id=10267

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8/24/2010 - Rethinking Gold: What if It Isn't a Commodity After All?

This won't sit well with some people: Gold isn't a commodity. There. I've said it.

But before you fire off an angry response, hear me out. The facts might change your view of gold's role in a portfolio.

For a long time, we've all heard that gold is a commodity—no different, really, from silver or wheat or pork bellies. Its price ebbs and flows (supposedly) with inflation, which historically drives commodity prices.

Odd, then, that gold's elevated price hasn't fallen in response to tepid U.S. inflation numbers. The Consumer Price Index as of July pegged inflation at just 1.2% for the previous 12 months, not counting seasonal adjustments. Nor has gold reacted to what Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco's chief executive, recently called "the road to deflation" on which he sees the U.S. traveling.

View Full Image

Bloomberg News

Data show that gold closely mirrors the movement of the U.S. dollar.

The conventional wisdom holds that neither of those scenarios—low inflation or deflation—should be good for gold. And yet it refuses to abandon record highs in the $1,200-an-ounce range. Something seems amiss.

I recently asked research firm Ibbotson Associates to run a correlation study to determine how closely inflation and gold-price movements track each other. You would expect gold, as a purported commodity, and inflation to move in tandem.

The data, going back to 1978 and capturing an inflationary spike, shows a correlation of, at most, 0.08.

That is low. Really low. Perfect correlation is 1; at minus-1, two assets move in perfect opposition. Near 0 implies gold and inflation barely acknowledge one another, and moves in unison are largely happenstance.

So if inflation doesn't push and pull at gold prices, what might it be? If you believe correlation studies, the answer is the U.S. dollar.

Going back to 1973—a period that defines the modern, non-gold-backed dollar—the greenback's movements closely track gold's direction. The correlation between month-end gold prices and the Major Currencies Dollar Index, as reported by the Federal Reserve, is minus-0.45.

That clearly is a stronger correlation than you find with inflation. But let's take this a bit further. Let's shorten the time frame to the period from gold's 1980 peak to today.

The result: Over the past 30 years, the correlation between the dollar and gold is minus-0.65—a high negative correlation. It means the dollar and gold are effectively on opposite ends of a seesaw. When the dollar is in favor, gold retreats. When it is under pressure, gold prices swell.

Look at the nearby chart. It is like a photo of a mountain scene reflected in a tranquil lake. The rises and falls and horizontal meanderings of gold are nearly the negative of the dollar's.

The implication is that gold isn't a commodity—at least not one that hews to the definition of something that people and industry consume.

Instead, "gold is a currency" whose daily price is a gauge of the market's concern about the "potential diminishment" of the purchasing power of the dollar and other paper currencies, says Paul Brodsky, a principal at New York's QB Asset Management.

If he is correct, it is the potential longer-term weakening of the dollar that is the real issue for the gold market, not inflation or deflation.

Some will note rightly that gold's record spike came amid the last great inflation surge. Those folks might be misreading the tea leaves.

Gold's four-year rally beginning in summer 1976 happened amid a four-year dollar decline. When the dollar bucked up at the end of 1980, gold prices retreated. Inflation was more of a sideshow than a driving force.

The question, with gold hanging around the $1,200 level, isn't "Is gold in a bubble?" as so many are asking. It's "What next for the dollar?"

Since its separation from gold, the dollar has been in a long downtrend, punctuated by periodic strength. The Fed's Major Currencies Dollar Index is down 27% since 1973, and down 45% since the dollar's peak in early 1985.

For investors convinced U.S. lawmakers and central bankers will successfully manage the budgetary woes and the massive unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare, then gold is overvalued in the long term. Righting America's national balance sheet would explicitly raise the dollar's value as investors with money abroad move assets into a more-sound American economy. The selling of euro, yen and pounds would push the dollar higher—and gold lower.

If, however, you worry the U.S. balance sheet is irreparably damaged, then gold currently reflects the likelihood that a weak-dollar trend still has years to run as the U.S. struggles with its financial mess. Investors—and consumers—looking to preserve their purchasing power will gravitate toward gold, since its quantity isn't easily manipulated.

Invest in gold, then, according your beliefs about the future of the greenback. Just don't invest based on the idea that gold is a proxy for inflation. You are likely to be played for a fool.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703908704575433670771742884.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_personalFinance

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8/23/2010 - Tony Robbins Warns Economic Collapse Is Coming

ony Robbins Warns Economic Collapse Is Coming

The Economic Collapse
August 23, 2010

It seems like almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.  Do you remember Tony Robbins?  He is probably the world’s best known “motivational speaker” and his infomercials dominated late night television during the 80s and 90s.  He was always urging all of us to “unleash the power within” and to take charge of our lives.  Well guess what?  Now Tony Robbins is warning that an economic collapse is coming. In fact, he has issued a special video warning about what he believes is about to happen. Considering the incredible connections that he has at the highest levels of the financial world, it makes a lot of sense to consider what he is trying to warn us about. Robbins says that a “major retracement” is coming to financial markets and that the coming collapse is going to be a “painful process” as we go through it.  Those familiar with Tony Robbins know that he always goes out of his way to stress the positive, so if even he is openly warning the public about a coming economic nightmare than you know that things are starting to get really, really bad out there.

The video that Tony Robbins published where he gives his economic warning is posted in two parts below.  This is unlike any Tony Robbins video that you have ever seen before and it is absolutely jaw dropping….

Part 1:



Part 2:




For those not familiar with my previous articles, let’s review just some of the reasons why America is headed towards an economic nightmare of unprecedented proportions….

The National Debt – The U.S. government has accumulated a national debt that is rapidly approaching the 14 trillion dollar mark.  According to Democrat Erskine Bowles, one of the heads of Barack Obama’s national debt commission, if we continue on the path we are on the U.S. government will be spending $2 trillion just for interest on the national debt by 2020.

State And Local Debt – Many of America’s state and local governments may be in even worse financial shape than the federal government is.  In fact, some state and local governments are in such a financial mess that they have starting cutting off even the most essential services.

Consumer Debt - The total amount of consumer debt that Americans have accumulated now stands at approximately 11.7 trillion dollars.

The Trade Deficit – The U.S. trade deficit has exploded to nightmarish proportions over the past two decades.  Every single month tens of billions more dollars flows out of the country than flows into it.  The rest of the world is literally bleeding us dry in slow motion.

No Jobs – Today it takes the average unemployed American over 8 months to find a job.  The number of Americans receiving long-term unemployment benefits has risen over 60 percent in just the past year.

The Credit Crunch – The U.S. is experiencing a credit crunch unlike anything it has seen since the Great Depression.  Lending has really, really dried up, but without loans our economic system cannot function properly.

The Housing Crisis – Even with mortgage rates at historic lows, a shockingly low number of Americans are buying houses.  There has been a total collapse in home sales since the home buyer tax credit expired.  At the same time, mortgage defaults, foreclosures and home repossessions by banks continue to set new all-time records.

Rising Bankruptcies – Nationwide, bankruptcy filings rose 20 percent in the 12-month period ending June 30th.

Rising Poverty – One out of every eight Americans and one out of every four American children are now on food stamps.  Approximately 50 million Americans couldn’t even afford to buy enough food to stay healthy at some point last year.

The Coming Pension Crisis – America is facing a pension crisis that is so nightmarish that it is almost impossible to adequately describe it.  State and local government pension plans are woefully underfunded, dozens of large corporate pension plans either have collapsed or are on the verge of collapsing, Social Security is a complete and total financial disaster and about half of all Americans essentially have nothing saved up for retirement.

The Derivatives Bubble – Our financial system has become a gigantic gambling parlor and we have allowed a horrific derivatives bubble to develop that could destroy the entire world economy if it ever bursts.  Nobody knows exactly how big the derivatives bubble is, but low estimates place it at around 600 trillion dollars and high estimates put it at around 1.5quadrillion dollars.  Once that bubble pops there simply will not be enough money in the entire world to fix it.

The Federal Reserve – The Federal Reserve has devalued the U.S. dollar by over 95 percent since 1913 and it has been used to create the biggest mountain of government debt in the history of the world.  There are many economists who would argue that the Federal Reserve is at the very core of our economic problems.

As we get even closer to the economic abyss that we are racing towards, even more big names such as Tony Robbins will come forward with warnings.

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The truth is that these problems did not develop overnight, and they are not going to be solved overnight either.

Perhaps our economic future is best summed up by this one statement that economist Paul Krugman recently made….

“America is now on the unlit, unpaved road to nowhere.”

It would be great if I could write about America’s bright economic future and the unlimited prosperity that is ahead for all of us, but that would be a lie.

We are headed for an economic collapse.

It is going to be painful.

It is time to get prepared.

http://www.infowars.com/tony-robbins-warns-economic-collapse-is-coming/

8/23/2010 - The Ecstasy of Empire

Paul Craig Roberts
Infowars.com
August 16, 2010

The United States is running out of time to get its budget and trade deficits under control.  Despite the urgency of the situation, 2010 has been wasted in hype about a non-existent recovery.  As recently as August 2 Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner penned a New York Times column, “Welcome to the Recovery.”

Without a revolution, Americans are history.

As John Williams (shadowstats.com) has made clear on many occasions, an appearance of recovery was created by over-counting employment and undercounting inflation. Warnings by Williams, Gerald Celente, and myself have gone unheeded, but our warnings recently had echoes from Boston University professor Laurence Kotlikoff and from David Stockman, who excoriated the Republican Party for becoming big-spending Democrats.

It is encouraging to see some realization that, this time, Washington cannot spend the economy out of recession. The deficits are already too large for the dollar to survive as reserve currency, and deficit spending cannot put Americans back to work in jobs that have been moved offshore. 

However, the solutions offered by those who are beginning to recognize that there is a problem are discouraging. Kotlikoff thinks the solution is savage Social Security and Medicare cuts or equally savage tax increases or hyperinflation to destroy the vast debts. 

Perhaps economists lack imagination, or perhaps they don’t want to be cut off from Wall Street and corporate subsidies, but Social Security and Medicare are insufficient at their present levels, especially considering the erosion of private pensions by the dot com, derivative and real estate bubbles. Cuts in Social Security and Medicare, for which people have paid 15 per cent of their earnings all their lives, would result in starvation and deaths from curable diseases. 

Tax increases make even less sense. It is widely acknowledged that the majority of households cannot survive on one job. Both husband and wife work and often one of the partners has two jobs in order to make ends meet. Raising taxes makes it harder to make ends meet–thus more foreclosures, more food stamps, more homelessness. What kind of economist or humane person thinks this is a solution?

Ah, but we will tax the rich. The rich have enough money. They will simply stop earning.

Let’s get real.  Here is what the government is likely to do.  Once  Washington realize that the dollar is at risk and that they can no longer finance their wars by borrowing abroad, the government will either levy a tax on private pensions on the grounds that the pensions have accumulated tax-deferred, or the government will require pension fund managers to purchase Treasury debt with our pensions. This will buy the government a bit more time while pension accounts are loaded up with worthless paper. 

The last Bush budget deficit (2008) was in the $400-500 billion range, about the size of the Chinese, Japanese, and OPEC trade surpluses with the US. Traditionally, these trade surpluses have been recycled to the US and finance the federal budget deficit. In 2009 and 2010 the federal deficit jumped to $1,400 billion, a back-to-back trillion dollar increase. There are not sufficient trade surpluses to finance a deficit this large. From where comes the money?

The answer is from individuals fleeing the stock market into “safe” Treasury bonds and from the bankster bailout, not so much the TARP money as the Federal Reserve’s exchange of bank reserves for questionable financial paper such as subprime derivatives. The banks used their excess reserves to purchase Treasury debt.

These financing maneuvers are one-time tricks. Once people have fled stocks, that movement into Treasuries is over. The opposition to the bankster bailout likely precludes another. So where does the money come from the next time?

The Treasury was able to unload a lot of debt thanks to “the Greek crisis,” which the New York banksters and hedge funds multiplied into “the euro crisis.” The financial press served as a financing arm for the US Treasury by creating panic about European debt and the euro. Central banks and individuals who had taken refuge from the dollar in euros were panicked out of their euros, and they rushed into dollars by purchasing US Treasury debt. 

This movement from euros to dollars weakened the alternative reserve currency to the dollar, halted the dollar’s decline, and financed the US budget deficit a while longer.

Possibly the game can be replayed with Spanish debt, Irish debt, and whatever unlucky country is eswept in by the thoughtless expansion of the European Union.

But when no countries remain that can be destabilized by Wall Street investment banksters and hedge funds, what then finances the US budget deficit?

The only remaining financier is the Federal Reserve. When Treasury bonds brought to auction do not sell, the Federal Reserve must purchase them. The Federal Reserve purchases the bonds by creating new demand deposits, or checking accounts, for the Treasury. As the Treasury spends the proceeds of the new debt sales, the US money supply expands by the amount of the Federal Reserve’s purchase of Treasury debt.

Do goods and services expand by the same amount?  Imports will increase as US jobs have been offshored and given to foreigners, thus worsening the trade deficit.  When the Federal Reserve purchases the Treasury’s new debt issues, the money supply will increase by more than the supply of domestically produced goods and services. Prices are likely to rise.

How high will they rise? The longer money is created in order that government can pay its bills, the more likely hyperinflation will be the result.

The economy has not recovered. By the end of this year it will be obvious that the collapsing economy means a larger than $1.4 trillion budget deficit to finance. Will it be $2 trillion? Higher? 

Whatever the size, the rest of the world will see that the dollar is being printed in such quantities that it cannot serve as reserve currency. At that point wholesale dumping of dollars will result as foreign central banks try to unload a worthless currency. 

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The collapse of the dollar will drive up the prices of imports and offshored goods on which Americans are dependent. Wal-Mart shoppers will think they have mistakenly gone into Neiman Marcus. 

Domestic prices will also explode as a growing money supply chases the supply of goods and services still made in America by Americans.

The dollar as reserve currency cannot survive the conflagration. When the dollar goes the US cannot finance its trade deficit. Therefore, imports will fall sharply, thus adding to domestic inflation and, as the US is energy import-dependent, there will be transportation disruptions that will disrupt work and grocery store deliveries.

Panic will be the order of the day.

Will farms will be raided? Will those trapped in cities resort to riots and looting?

Is this the likely future that “our” government and “our patriotic” corporations have created for us?

To borrow from Lenin, “What can be done?”

Here is what can be done. The wars, which benefit no one but the military-security complex and Israel’s territorial expansion, can be immediately ended. This would reduce the US budget deficit by hundreds of billions of dollars per year.  More hundreds of billions of dollars could be saved by cutting the rest of the military budget which, in its present size, exceeds the budgets of all the serious military powers on earth combined. 

US military spending reflects the unaffordable and unattainable crazed neoconservative  goal of US Empire and world hegemony. What fool in Washington thinks that China is going to finance US hegemony over China? 

The only way that the US will again have an economy is by bringing back the offshored jobs. The loss of these jobs impoverished Americans while producing oversized gains for Wall Street, shareholders, and corporate executives. These jobs can be brought home where they belong by taxing corporations according to where value is added to their product. If value is added to their goods and services in China, corporations would have a high tax rate. If value is added to their goods and services in the US, corporations would have a low tax rate.

This change in corporate taxation would offset the cheap foreign labor that has sucked jobs out of America, and it would rebuild the ladders of upward mobility that made America an opportunity society. 

If the wars are not immediately stopped and the jobs brought back to America, the US is relegated to the trash bin of history.

Obviously, the corporations and Wall Street would use their financial power and campaign contributions to block any legislation that would reduce short-term earnings and bonuses by bringing jobs back to America. Americans have no greater enemies than Wall Street and the corporations and their prostitutes in Congress and the White House.

The neocons allied with Israel, who control both parties and much of the media, are strung out on the ecstasy of Empire. 

The United States and the welfare of its 300 million people cannot be restored unless the neocons, Wall Street, the corporations, and their servile slaves in Congress and the White House can be defeated.

Without a revolution, Americans are history.

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts is the father of Reaganomics and the former head of policy at the Department of Treasury. He is a columnist and was previously an editor for the Wall Street Journal. His latest book, “How the Economy Was Lost: The War of the Worlds,” details why America is disintegrating.


http://www.infowars.com/the-ecstasy-of-empire/

8/23/2010 - Preserve and Protect: Mapping The Tipping Points

Preserve and Protect: Mapping The Tipping Points

The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people are apparently willing to pay any price.  As a sailor, it feels like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any eventuality. Are you prepared?

What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane? Unlike sailors, the financial markets do not have the forecasting technology for protection against such a possibility. Good sailors before today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial community.

Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly looming on the horizon.

Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971, the increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking. It has grown unchecked and inevitably has become unhinged from world industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.

Do you believe trees grow to the sky?
Or, is it you believe you are smart enough to get out before this graph crashes?

Apparent synthetic wealth has artificially and temporarily been created through the production of paper. Whether Federal Reserve IOU notes (the dollar) or guaranteed certificates of confiscation (treasury notes & bonds), it needs to never be forgotten that these are paper. It is not wealth. It is someone else’s obligation to deliver that wealth to the holder of the paper based on what that paper is felt to be worth when the obligation is required to be surrendered. It must never be forgotten that fiat paper is only a counter party obligation to deliver. Will they? Unfortunately, since fiat paper is no longer a store of value, it is recklessly being created to solve political problems. What you will inevitably receive will be only be a fraction of the value of what you originally surrendered.

In the chart above, we see that just when the exponential expansion seemed to have run its course during the dotcom bubble implosion, we subsequently accelerated even faster. Cheap central bank money; the unregulated, off-shore, off-balance sheet increase in securitization products; a $617T derivatives market; and the domination of the credit producing Shadow Banking system then took us to even greater levels. Bubble after bubble continues to propel us, as more recently the Bond Bubble replaced the Real Estate bubble.  Similar to trees not growing to the sky, something always happens which creates a tipping point, a moment of instability or a critical phase transition. Suddenly what worked no longer works.

I have written extensively in a series entitled “Sultans of Swap” and another series entitled “Extend & Pretend” the growing and clearly evident tipping points that are unquestionably now on the horizon. You can ignore them at your peril, but when the storm swells hit, don’t say you were never warned and no one saw this coming. 

Consolidating the trends and distortions outlined in these two series, we arrive at the following ‘large brush’ death spiral leading to a failure of fiat based currency regimes.

The above cycle is well supported by recent and still unfolding developments. These have been mapped onto the cycle.

MAPPING THE TIPPING POINTS

Let’s now list the Tipping Points which have become abundantly evident over the last few years and which are continuously expanded on our web site Tipping Points.  We track each of these on a daily basis on the site.  The rankings shown below, though they do shift, we have found to stay relatively stable on a quarterly basis.  Each Tipping Point has the capability of individually being a catalyst to advance the sector marked in red above.

SEQUENCE & TIMEFRAMES

We can never be sure of the sequence and time frame of any particular Tipping Point. Like a house of cards you never know which one, or what movement will precisely bring the house of cards down. What you know however, is that it will happen – you just need to be patient and prepared. Unfortunately few have the patience or think they can time it for even more profit. The greatest trader of all time, Jesse Livermore, wrote after a life time of trading, that his best gains were made when “he bought right and sat tight!”

Our current analysis on Tipping Points reflects the following:

DETERMINING MORE GRANULARITY – We are in the 2010-2011 Transition Phase

In my articles EXTEND & PRETEND: A Guide to the Road Ahead and EXTEND & PRETEND: A Matter of National Security I outlined even more granularity to the virtuous cycle turning vicious spiral.

We can now overlay the Tipping Points onto this map. We arrive at the following.

A – EXIT FROM ECONOMIC CRISIS STAGE

• Commercial Real Estate – Finally forced to account properly for mark-to market valuations.
• Housing Real Estate – Option ARMS come due and FHA / FNM / FDE / FDIC are seen as insolvent.
• Corporate Bankruptcies – Unfunded Pension impacts and debt loads (gearing) on reduced revenues.
• State, City & Local Government Financial Implosion – Non Accrued Pension Obligations, falling tax revenue and years of accounting gimmicks come home to roost.
• Central & Eastern Europe – The ‘sub-prime’ of Europe will soon erupt on the EU banking network as evidenced recently by Hungary and the Baltic States.

TRANSITION: 

HIGHER INTEREST RATES
Significantly Increasing Interest Rates – A Major Global News Focus

A $5T Quantitative Easing (QE II) Emergency Action
It will likely be triggered by a geo-political event or false flag operation.

B – ENTER POLITICAL CRISIS STAGE

• Entitlement Crisis -  The unfunded and underfunded Pension charade ends
• Credit Contraction II – Credit Shrinks Violently
• Banking Crisis II – Banking Insolvency no longer able to be hidden through Extend & Pretend.
• Reduced Rating Levels  - Falling Asset Values and Collateral Calls on $430T Interest Rate Swaps
• Government Back-Stopped Programs -  FHA, Fannie Mae, Freddie MA, FDIC go bust

C - HITTING ‘MATURITY WALL’ STAGE

Lending ‘Roll-Over’ – Game Ends

CONCLUSION

A recent Zero Hedge contributing author summarized the current environment nicely:

“There is an entrenched insolvency problem in the United States, and a picture is worth a thousand words. Insolvency is not illiquidity; insolvency is about income that can’t service debt burden. Notice where things fall off the cliff: I believe we are getting close to this point. Just need a catalyst. Sequential bond auction failures here, a sovereign default there, massive liquidity drain all around, worse… whatever. The fumes running the engine (QE, or credit easing) are dwindling.”

There is an old sailor’s saying:

Red sky at night, sailors delight.
Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning!

Every morning the next batch of economic numbers is released and the indications are consistently red. Of course the market initially drops, and then miraculously rises on no volume. Since 2007 we have potentially constructed the largest head and shoulders topping formation we have ever seen.

This doesn’t mean the markets are imminently headed down. What it does mean is you should be meticulously battening down your financial hatches and checking your options for every eventuality.

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” – Mark Twain

Gordon T Long           
Tipping Points

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-preserve-and-protect-mapping-tipping-points