Monday, December 31, 2018

12/31/2018 - **Overnight Markets and News**

**Overnight Markets and News**

*Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH19 +0.95%) are up +0.86% and European stocks are up +0.41% on optimism a resolution to the U.S.-China trade rift may be near after President Trump said he spoke on the phone Saturday with Chinese President Xi Jinping and that negotiations were "moving along very well" and they made "big progress" toward cutting a trade deal.  Mining stocks and commodity producers are leading the overall market higher with Feb COMEX gold (GCG19 +0.16%) up +0.21% at a 6-1/2 month high.  The global stock market turmoil seen over the past month has boosted demand for gold as a store of wealth as long gold positions in ETFs climbed to a 6-1/2 month high last Friday.  Chinese growth concerns remain, however, after the China Dec manufacturing PMI unexpectedly contracted at the steepest pace in nearly 3 years.  Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan, China, Taiwan and South Korea closed for holidays.  Hong Kong +1.34%, Australia -0.14%, Singapore +0.50%, India -0.02%.

*The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) is down -0.20% as the partial U.S. government shutdown entered its tenth day with no signs of resolution.  EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.03%) is up =0.02% on reduced Italian political risks after Italy's government won final parliamentary approval for its 2019 budget.  USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.30%) is down -0.29% at a 4-1/4 month low after IMF data showed the yen's share of global reserves rose to 5% in Q3, the highest in 16-years, as market turmoil boosted safe-haven demand for the yen.

*Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH19 +0-015) are up +1.5 ticks.

*The China Dec non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.4 to 53.8, stronger than expectations of -0.2 to 53.2.

*The China Dec manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.6 to 49.4, weaker than expectations of no change at 50.0 and the steepest pace of contraction in 2-3/4 years.

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**U.S. Stock Preview**

*Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Dec Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (expected -2.6 to 15.0, Nov -11.8 to 17.6).

*Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: none.

*U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

*Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: Goldman Sachs Health Care CEO Conference on Thu.




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**Overnight U.S. Stock Movers**

*Boeing (BA -0.24%) was awarded a $400 million contract from the U.S. Air Force for B-1 and B-2 bomber engineering services.

*iStar Financial (STAR +0.33%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at JMP Securities with a price target of $11.50.

*CRIPR Therapeutics AG (CRSP +1.29%) rose almost 3% on after-hours trading after Vertex, the company's second-largest shareholder, raised its stake in the company to 10.4%.

*Ocular Therapeutics (OCUL +6.72%) may initially open lower this morning after it filed a $200 million mixed securities shelf.
 


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**Market Comments**

*Mar S&P 500 E-minis (ESH19 +0.95%) this morning are up +21.50 points (+0.86%).  Friday's closes: S&P 500 -0.12%, Dow Jones -0.33%, Nasdaq 100 -0.05%.  The S&P 500 on Friday fell back from a 1-week high and closed lower on the unexpected -0.7% m/m decline in U.S. Nov pending home sales (weaker than expectations of +1.0% m/m) and on ongoing U.S. political risks that may curb economic growth as the partial shutdown of the U.S. government hit its seventh day with no prospect for a resolution.  Stocks found support on the -1.0 point decline in the U.S. Dec Chicago PMI to 65.4, which was stronger than expectations of -6.2 to 60.2.  Energy stocks saw some strength after crude oil prices rose +1.61%.

*Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH19 +0-015) this morning are up +1.5 ticks.  Friday's closes: TYH9 +3.00, FVH9 +2.25.  Mar 10-year T-notes on Friday rallied to a new contract high and closed higher.  T-note prices were boosted by unexpected decline in U.S. Nov pending home sales and by reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate sank to a 1-1/2 year low.

*The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) this morning is down -0.196 (-0.20%).  EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.03%) is up +0.0002 (+0.02%).  USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.30%) is down -0.32 (-0.29%) at a 4-1/4 month low.  Friday's closes: Dollar Index -0.079 (-0.08%), EUR/USD +0.0014 (+0.12%), USD/JPY -0.74 (-0.67%).  The dollar index on Friday fell to a 1-week low and closed lower on U.S. political risks as the partial shutdown of the U.S. government entered its seventh day with no prospect for a resolution.  The dollar was also undercut by the unexpected decline in U.S. Nov pending home sales, which was dovish for Fed policy.

*Metals prices this morning are mixed.  Feb gold (GCG19 +0.16%) is up +2.7 (+0.21%) at a 6-1/2 month high, Mar silver (SIH19 +0.58%) is up +0.089 (+0.58%), and Mar copper (HGH19 -0.13%) is down -0.002 (-0.07%).  Friday's closes: Feb Comex gold (GCG19) on Friday closed up +1.9 (+0.15%) and March silver closed up +0.126 (+0.82%).  Feb gold on Friday climbed to a fresh 6-1/4 month high and Mar silver rose to a new 4-1/2 month high.  A slide in the dollar index to a 1-week low Friday fueled buying of precious metals.  Also, stock market volatility has boosted safe-demand for precious metals.  In addition, U.S. political risks are boosting demand for gold as store of wealth as the partial shutdown of the U.S. government hit its seventh day with no prospect for a resolution.  President Trump said he won't relent on the partial government shutdown unless Congress funds his border wall, which raises the prospect for an extended shutdown.  The turmoil in global equity markets increased demand for gold as a store of wealth as long gold positions in ETFs rose to a 6-1/4 month high on Wednesday.  A negative for silver prices is ongoing fund selling as long silver positions in ETFs fell for an eighth consecutive session to a 10-1/2 month low on Thursday.

*Feb crude oil prices (CLG19 +2.18%) this morning are up +89 cents (+1.96%) and Feb gasoline (RBG19 +2.62%) is up +3.50 (+2.69%).  Friday's closes: Feb WTI crude oil (CLF19) on Friday closed up by +0.72 161.55%) and Feb Brent crude (CBG19) closed up +0.04 (+0.07%).  Feb RBOB gasoline (RBF19) closed up +1.64 cents per gallon (+1.28%).  A decline in the dollar index to a 1-week low Friday pushed the energy complex higher.  A rally in U.S. and European equities was another positive factor for energy prices.  The upside in crude prices was contained after weekly EIA crude inventories fell -46,000 bbl, a smaller decline than expectations of -3.0 million bbl, and after EIA gasoline stockpiles jumped +3.003 million bbl, well above expectations of +1.0 million bbl build.  U.S. oil production in Friday's EIA report (for the week ended Dec 21) was up +0.9% w/w to 11.7 million bpd and matched November's record high.  Also, crude supplies at Cushing, OK, delivery point of WTI futures, rose +799,000 bbl to an 11-month high.  Friday's data from Baker Hughes was negative as well as active U.S. oil rigs rose +2 in the week of Dec 28 to 885, just below the 3-3/4 year high of 888 from the week of Nov 16.
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General Advice Disclosure: Please note that the advice contained herein is general advice and is for the purposes of education only. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options, stocks, stock options and forex currencies can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You are reminded that past performance is no guarantee or reliable indication of future results. It has not been prepared taking into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.You should therefore assess whether the advice is appropriate to your individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. You should do this before making an investment decision based on this general advice. You can either make the assessment yourself or seek the help of a professional adviser. This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. The Vulcan Report accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents. For Related news and other stories please visit - http://www.wideawakenews.com/ For Related videos on our Youtube channel please visit - http://www.youtube.com/user/pulsescan72 Be Sure to register for faster updates and commentaries at - BLOG 1: - http://pulsescan.blogspot.com/ BLOG 2: - http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/466159-pulsescan72/ BULLS make money... BEARS make money.... PIGS get slaughtered! "TAKE WHAT YOU CAN .........GIVE NOTHING BACK"!!

Friday, December 21, 2018

12/21/2018 - **Overnight Markets and News**

**Overnight Markets and News**

*Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH19 -0.38%) this morning are down -0.36% as the threat of a partial shutdown of the U.S. government looms if lawmakers fail to pass a spending bill by midnight tonight.  Lawmakers remain at odds over President Trump's demands for $5 billion for construction of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.  European stocks are down -0.49% at a fresh 2-year low as weakness in energy stocks leads the overall market lower.  Feb WTI crude oil (CLG19 -0.92%) is down -0.94% at a 16-3/4 month low as robust global oil supplies amid demand concerns continue to weigh on crude prices.  Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -1.11%, Hong Kong +0.51%, China -0.79%, Taiwan +0.02%, Australia -0.69%, Singapore -0.15%, South Korea +0.09%, India -1.89%.  China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 2-month low and Japan's Nikkei Stock Index slid to a fresh 1-1/4 year low as this week's rout in global equity markets continues.  Chinese stocks failed to garner support on signs the government will boost stimulus to prop up the Chinese economy.  A statement from government leaders at China's annual Economic Work Conference in Beijing said "significant" cuts to taxes and fees will be enacted in 2019 and monetary policy will remain "prudent."

*The dollar index (DXY00 +0.33%) is up +0.29%.  EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.23%) is down -0.24%.  USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.07%) is down -0.07%.

*Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH19 -0-010) are down -1.5 ticks.

*German Jan GfK consumer confidence was uch at 10.4, stronger than expectations of -0.1 to 10.3.

*UK Dec GfK consumer confidence fell -1 to a nearly 5-1/2 year low of -14, right on expectations.

*Japan Nov national CPI rose +0.8% y/y, right on expectations.  Nov national CPI es fresh food rose +0.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.0% y/y.  Nov national CPI ex fresh food & energy rose +0.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.5% y/y.

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**U.S. Stock Preview**

*Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Q3 GDP (expected unrevised at +3.5% q/q annualized), (2) Nov durable goods orders (expected +1.6% and +0.3% ex transportation, Oct -4.4% and +0.1% ex transportation), (3) Nov personal spending (expected +0.3%, Oct +0.6%) and Nov personal income (expected +0.3%, Oct +0.5%), (4) Nov PCE deflator (expected unch m/m and +1.8% y/y, Oct +0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y) and Nov core PCE deflator (expected +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Oct +0.1% m/m and +1.8% y/y), (5) final-Dec University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index (expected unch at 97.5, prelim-Dec unch at 97.5), (6) Dec Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (expected -2 to 13, Nov +7 to 15).

*Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: CarMax (consensus $0.99).

*U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

*Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: none.




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**Overnight U.S. Stock Movers**

*Facebook (FB +0.12%) is down -0.5% in pre-market trading after DZ Bank downgraded it to 'Sell' from 'Hold' with a price target of $115.

*Altria Group (MO -1.87%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup with a price target of $45.

*NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI +0.90%) was rated a new 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray with a price target of $100.

*Applied Materials (AMAT -2.00%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Needham & Co with a price target of $45.

*Cintas (CTAS -3.65%) climbed more than 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 revenue of $1.72 billion, better than consensus of $1.70 billon, and then forecast full-year revenue of $6.87 billion to $6.91 billion, stronger than consensus of $6.84 billion.

*Nike (NKE -2.09%) rallied more than 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 52 cents, higher than consensus of 46 cents.

*CyberArk Software Ltd (CYBR -2.39%) rose more than 2% in after-hours trading after it was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.

*Gritstone Oncology (GRTS -17.00%) jumped 10% in after-hours trading after the FDA granted FAST TRACK designation for its Granite-001 drug for the treatment of colorectal cancer.

*CalAmp (CAMP -2.31%) dropped 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 25 cents, weaker than consensus of 28 cents, and then forecast Q4 adjusted EPS of 23 cents to 29 cents, below consensus of 30 cents.

*Uxin Ltd (UXIN -18.22%) fell 6% in after-hours trading in continuation of Thursday’s record 18% plunge.
 


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**Market Comments**

*Mar S&P 500 E-minis (ESH19 -0.38%) this morning are down -9.00 points (-0.36%).  Thursday's closes: S&P 500 -1.58%, Dow Jones -1.99%, Nasdaq 100 -1.57%.  The S&P 500 on Thursday sold off to a 1-1/4 year low and closed lower on negative carry-over from Wednesday's hawkish FOMC meeting that bolstered fears the Fed may raise interest rates by too much in 2019 and cause a recession.  Stocks were also undercut by the apparent likelihood for a partial government shutdown on Friday night.  Energy stocks were undercut as crude oil prices plunged by -4.75% to a 1-1/4 year low.

*Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH19 -0-010) this morning are down -1.5 ticks.  Thursday's closes: TYH9 -3.5, FVH9 -3.00.  Mar 10-year T-notes on Thursday closed higher on the plunge in global equity markets, which boosted the safe-haven demand for T-notes.  T-note prices were also bolstered by reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate tumbled to a 1-1/4 year low.  T-note prices ended lower as the recovery in equity prices from their worst levels, curbed safe-haven demand for T-notes.  T-note prices were also undercut by supply pressures after the Treasury announced $131 billion of T-note and floating rate note auctions for next week, which prompted bond dealers to short T-notes as a hedge against the incoming supply.

*The dollar index (DXY00 +0.33%) this morning is up +0.278 (+0.29%), EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.23%) is down -0.0028 (-0.24%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.07%) is down -0.08 (-0.07%).  Thursday's closes: Dollar Index -0.759 (-0.78%), EUR/USD +0.0070 (+0.62%), USD/JPY -1.20 (-1.07%).  The dollar index on Thursday tumbled to a 1-month low and closed lower on the sell-off in the S&P 500 to a 1-1/4 year low, which boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen and pushed USD/JPY down to a 3-1/4 month low.  The dollar was also undercut by concern the Fed may raise interest rates by too much in 2019 and cause a recession.

*Metals prices this morning are lower with Feb gold (GCG19 -0.41%) -4.5 (-0.35%), Mar silver (SIH19 -0.83%) -0.119 (-0.80%), and Mar copper (HGH19 -0.22%) -0.007 (-0.24%).  Thursday's closes: Feb gold +11.5 (+0.92%), Mar silver +0.051 (+0.34%), and Mar copper -0.0195 (-0.72%).  Metals on Thursday settled mixed with Feb gold at a 5-1/2 month high.  Precious metals prices were boosted by the decline in the dollar index to a 1-month low and by safe-haven demand with the plunge in the S&P 500 to a 1-1/4 year low.  Metals prices were undercut by the the unexpected -3.5 point decline in the U.S. Dec Philadelphia Fed business outlook index to a 2-1/3 year low of 9.4, which signals reduced demand for industrial metals, and by fund selling of silver as long silver positions in ETFs fell for a sixth consecutive session to a 10-1/4 month low on Wednesday.

*Feb WTI crude oil prices (CLG19 -0.92%) this morning are down -43 cents (-0.94%) at a 16-3/4 month low and Feb gasoline (RBG19 -1.10%) is -2.09 (-1.60%) at a new 2-year low.  Feb WTI crude oil (CLF19) on Thursday closed down by -$2.29 per barrel (-4.75%) and Feb Brent crude (CBG19) closed down -$2.89 (-5.05%).  Feb RBOB gasoline (RBF19) closed down by -6.53 cents per gallon (-4.75%).  The energy complex sold-off sharply Thursday with Feb WTI crude and Feb Brent crude at 1-1/4 year lows and Feb RBOB gasoline at a 2-year low.  Demand concerns fueled fund selling of energy futures after Wednesday's hawkish FOMC meeting bolstered concern Fed policy will choke off global growth and energy demand.  U.S. economic concerns are also bearish for crude prices after the S&P 500 plunged to a 1-1/4 year low and after the Dec Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey unexpectedly fell -3.5 to a 2-1/3 year low of 9.4.  Negative carry-over from Wednesday's weekly EIA data also weighed on energy prices after U.S. crude oil inventories fell by only -497,000 bbl, which was bearish relative to expectations of -2.5 mln bbl, and after crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, rose +1.09 million bbl to an 11-month high.  A slump in the dollar index to a 1-month low on Thursday failed to spark buying interest in energy futures.
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General Advice Disclosure: Please note that the advice contained herein is general advice and is for the purposes of education only. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options, stocks, stock options and forex currencies can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You are reminded that past performance is no guarantee or reliable indication of future results. It has not been prepared taking into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.You should therefore assess whether the advice is appropriate to your individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. You should do this before making an investment decision based on this general advice. You can either make the assessment yourself or seek the help of a professional adviser. This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. The Vulcan Report accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents. For Related news and other stories please visit - http://www.wideawakenews.com/ For Related videos on our Youtube channel please visit - http://www.youtube.com/user/pulsescan72 Be Sure to register for faster updates and commentaries at - BLOG 1: - http://pulsescan.blogspot.com/ BLOG 2: - http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/466159-pulsescan72/ BULLS make money... BEARS make money.... PIGS get slaughtered! "TAKE WHAT YOU CAN .........GIVE NOTHING BACK"!!

Thursday, December 20, 2018

12/20/2018 - **Overnight Markets and News**

**Overnight Markets and News**

*Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH19 +0.19%) this morning are up +0.40% as they recover from a contract low posted in the overnight session.  U.S. stocks indexes slumped Wednesday afternoon, with the S&P 500 falling to a 1-1/4 year low, after the FOMC signaled additional rate hikes next year.  The sell-off in U.S. equities spread around the world with European stocks down -1.16% at a 2-year low.  The sell-off in European stocks boosted safe-haven demand for government debt as the 10-year German bund yield fell to a 6-1/2 month low of 0.204%.  The slump in global equity markets has stoked demand concerns for crude with Feb WTI crude oil (CLG19 -2.89%) down -3.43%.  Asian stocks settled lower: Japan -2.84%, Hong Kong -0.94%, China -0.52%, Taiwan -1.11%, Australia -1.34%, Singapore -0.26%, South Korea -0.94%, India -0.14%.  Asian stock markets followed the plunge in U.S. equity markets as China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 2-month low and Japan's Nikkei Stock Index slid to a 14-1/2 month low.  A sell-off in Japanese exporters led losses in Japanese stocks after USD/JPY tumbled to a 1-3/4 month low, which curbs the earnings prospects of exporters.  Losses in Japanese stocks accelerated after the BOJ kept monetary policy unchanged.

*The dollar index (DXY00 -0.69%) is down -0.72% at a 1-month low.  EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.76%) is up +0.76%% at a 1-1/2 month high.  USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.63%) is down -0.66% at a 1-3/4 month low.

*Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH19 -0-015) are down -1.5 ticks.

*The BOJ as expected kept its benchmark interest rate at -0.1% and its target for the 10-year Japanese government bond yield at around 0%.  The BOJ also maintained its JGB purchase pace of about 80 trillion yen a year.

*The BOE as expected voted 9-0 to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75% and to maintain its asset purchase target at 435 billion pounds.

*UK Nov retail sales ex auto fuel rose +1.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m.  Nov retail sales including auto fuel rose +1.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and the biggest increase in 6 months.

*UK Dec CBI retailing reported sales fell -32 to a 14-month low of -13, weaker than expectations of -4 to 15.

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**U.S. Stock Preview**

*Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +9,000 to 215,000, previous -27,000 to 206,000) and continuing claims (expected +2,000 to 1.663 million, previous +25,000 to 1.661 million), (2) Dec Philadelphia Fed business outlook index (expected +2.1 to 15.0, Nov -9.3 to 12.9), (3) Nov leading indicators (expected unch m/m, Oct +0.1%), (4) Treasury auctions $14 billion of 5-year TIPS.

*Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: NIKE (consensus $0.46), Carnival (0.70), Accenture (1.86), Walgreens (1.43), Conagra (0.56), Cintas (1.71).

*U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

*Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: none.




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**Overnight U.S. Stock Movers**

*Occidental Petroleum (OXY -1.43%) was rated a new 'Overweight' at KeyBanc Capital Markets with a price target of $75.

*Phillips 66 (PSX +0.51%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Jeffries with a price target of $105.

*ShotSpotter (SSTI +0.36%) was rated a new 'Buy' at B Riley FBR with a price target of $53.

*Celanese (CE -0.84%) may open higher initially this morning after it was announced that it will replace Express Scripts in the S&P 500 before the open of trading on Monday, December 24.

*Bluebird Bio (BLUE -2.22%) was rated a new 'Strong Buy' at Raymond James with a price target of $165.

*Tilray (TLRY -7.19%) rallied 16% in after-hours trading after Anheuser-Busch InBEv SA joined into a research partnership with Tilray where both companies will invest $50 million each into a partnership to develop non-alcoholic, cannabis-infused beverages.

*Halliburton (HAL -4.62%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Societe Generale with a price target of $34.

*Cal-Maine Foods (CALM -0.54%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Goldman Sachs with a 6-month price target of $32.

*G1 Therapeutics (GTHX +0.88%) tumbled 23% in after-hours trading after it said a Phase 2 trial of its Trilaciclib in patients with small cell lung cancer failed to show a benefit over chemotherapy in response rate and progression-free survival.

*Herman Miller (MLHR -1.43%) jumped 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 net sales of $652.6 million, better than consensus of $647 million, and then forecast Q3 sales of $615 million to $630 million, stronger than consensus of $602.5 million.

*Limoneira (LMNR +0.86%) fell 5% in after-hours trading after it forecast 2019 adjusted EPS of 75 cents to 85 cents, weaker than consensus of 89 cents.

*Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI -1.51%) plunged nearly 30% in after-hours trading after the FDA did not grant Breakthrough Therapy Designation status to its Poziotinib drug for the treatment of patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer.
 


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**Market Comments**

*Mar S&P 500 E-minis (ESH19 +0.19%) this morning are up +10.00 points (+0.40%).  Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 -1.54%, Dow Jones -1.49%, Nasdaq 100 -2.29%.  The S&P 500 on Wednesday slumped to a new 14-1/2 month low and closed lower on the hawkish interpretation of the FOMC meeting where the Fed dots only reduced the forecast to two rate hikes in 2019 from three rate hikes, versus market hopes for a more clear cut signal that the Fed would be firmly on pause in early 2019.  Stocks found some support from the unexpected +1.9% increase in U.S. Nov existing home sales to 5.32 million, stronger than expectations of -0.4% to 5.20 million. 

*Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH19 -0-015) this morning are down -1.5 ticks.  Wednesday's closes: TYH9 +10.0, FVH9 +4.25.  Mar 10-year T-notes on Wednesday rallied to a contract high and closed higher on ideas that the Fed will raise interest rates by too much in 2019 and cause a recession.  T-note prices were also boosted by the slump in stocks, which boosted the safe-haven demand for T-notes.

*The dollar index (DXY00 -0.69%) this morning is down -0.703 (-0.72%) at a 1-month low, EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.76%) is up +0.0086 (+0.76%) at a 1-1/2 month high, and USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.63%) is down -0.74 (-0.66%) at a 1-3/4 month low.  Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.069 (-0.07%), EUR/USD +0.0015 (+0.13%), USD/JPY -0.04 (-0.04%).  The dollar index on Wednesday dropped to a 1-week low and closed lower on the sell-off in stocks that boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen and caused a drop in USD/JPY to a 1-1/2 month low.  The dollar was also undercut by the FOMC's cut in its U.S. 2019 GDP estimate to 2.3% from a Sep estimate of 2.5%.

*Metals prices this morning are mixed with Feb gold (GCG19 +0.19%) +2.9 (+0.23%), Mar silver (SIH19 -0.05%) -0.003 (-0.02%), and Mar copper (HGH19 -0.85%) -0.022 (-0.79%).  Wednesday's closes: Gold and Silver Market News and Commentary - Feb Comex gold (GCG19) on Wednesday closed up +2.8 (+0.22%), and Mar Comex silver (SIH19) closed up +0.117 (+0.80%).  A slide in the dollar index to a 1-week low Wednesday pushed metals prices higher with Feb gold at a 5-month high and Mar silver at a 1-1/2 month high.  Gold prices were boosted by technical buying after prices climbed above the 200-day average.  Also, recent stock market turmoil that pushed the S&P 500 to a 14-1/2 month low Tuesday has been a bullish factor for gold on increased demand for gold as a store of wealth after long gold positions in ETFs rose to a 5-1/4 month high Tuesday.  A positive for silver prices was the unexpected increase in U.S. Nov existing home sales (+1.9% vs expectations of -0.4%), which is positive for industrial metals demand.  A negative for silver is increased fund selling as long positions in ETFs fell for a fifth consecutive session to a 5-3/4 month low on Tuesday.

*Feb WTI crude oil prices (CLG19 -2.89%) this morning are down -$1.65 per barrel (-3.43%) and Feb gasoline (RBG19 -2.43%) is -4.04 cents per gallon (-2.94%).  Wednesday's closes: Feb WTI crude oil (CLF19) on Wednesday closed up by +$1.57 per barrel (+3.37%) and Feb Brent crude (CBG19) closed up +$0.98 (+1.74%).  Feb RBOB gasoline (RBF19) closed up by +2.75 cents per gallon (+2.04%).  A decline in the dollar index on Wednesday to a 1-week low spurred short-covering in the energy complex following Tuesday's plunge.  Also, comments from Saudi Arabian Energy Minister prompted additional short-covering in crude futures when he said he is "certain" that OPEC+ will extend its 2019 crude production cuts when they meet in April.  The energy complex also found support from an increase in the crack spread to a 1-month high, which gives incentive to refiners to purchase crude to refine it into gasoline.  A bearish factor was weekly EIA data that showed a +1.09 million bbl increase in crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, to an 11-month high.  In addition, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by only -497,000 bbl, which was bearish relative to expectations of -2.5 mln bbl.  Gasoline inventories rose +1.76 mln, slightly above expectations of +1.6 mln bbl.  The energy complex sold off sharply Tuesday with Feb WTI crude oil at a 1-1/4 year low, Feb Brent crude at a 14-month low, and Feb RBOB gasoline at a 2-year low on global supply concerns.  The EIA late Monday forecast that U.S. Jan shale-oil crude production will climb to 8.166 million bpd, up +136,000 bpd (+1.7% m/m) from 8.030 million bpd forecast for Dec.
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General Advice Disclosure: Please note that the advice contained herein is general advice and is for the purposes of education only. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options, stocks, stock options and forex currencies can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You are reminded that past performance is no guarantee or reliable indication of future results. It has not been prepared taking into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.You should therefore assess whether the advice is appropriate to your individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. You should do this before making an investment decision based on this general advice. You can either make the assessment yourself or seek the help of a professional adviser. This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. The Vulcan Report accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents. For Related news and other stories please visit - http://www.wideawakenews.com/ For Related videos on our Youtube channel please visit - http://www.youtube.com/user/pulsescan72 Be Sure to register for faster updates and commentaries at - BLOG 1: - http://pulsescan.blogspot.com/ BLOG 2: - http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/466159-pulsescan72/ BULLS make money... BEARS make money.... PIGS get slaughtered! "TAKE WHAT YOU CAN .........GIVE NOTHING BACK"!!

TVR [# ] 12-19-2018 LIVE CHAT FOMC



General Advice Disclosure: Please note that the advice contained herein is general advice and is for the purposes of education only. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options, stocks, stock options and forex currencies can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You are reminded that past performance is no guarantee or reliable indication of future results. It has not been prepared taking into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.You should therefore assess whether the advice is appropriate to your individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. You should do this before making an investment decision based on this general advice. You can either make the assessment yourself or seek the help of a professional adviser.



This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. The Vulcan Report accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.



For Related news and other stories please visit - http://www.wideawakenews.com/

For Related videos on our Youtube channel please visit - http://www.youtube.com/user/pulsescan72



Be Sure to register for faster updates and commentaries at -

BLOG 1: - http://pulsescan.blogspot.com/

BLOG 2: - http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/466159-pulsescan72/



BULLS make money... BEARS make money.... PIGS get slaughtered!



"TAKE WHAT YOU CAN .........GIVE NOTHING BACK"!!

Wednesday, December 19, 2018

12/19/2018 - **Overnight Markets and News**

**Overnight Markets and News**

*Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH19 +0.87%) this morning are up +0.83% on optimism a resolution to the China-U.S. trade rift can be found after China's Ministry of Commerce said both sides have held several rounds of talks in recent weeks and that they plan to hold a formal, face-to-face meeting in Jan.  U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said both sides are focused on trying "to document an agreement" by a Mar 1 deadline for their current tariffs truce to run out.  The FOMC is expected to raise the funds rate target by 25 bp at the conclusion of today's policy meeting, although the 10-year T-note yield slid to a 6-1/2 month low of 2.798% today on expectations the FOMC will signal a slower pace or even a pause in interest rate hikes next year.  European stocks are up +0.66% as Italian bank stocks rallied after the European Commission decided against launching a disciplinary procedure against Italy over its budget and said that concessions by Italy on its budget meant the country didn't warrant triggering the excessive deficit procedure.  Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -0.60%, Hong Kong +0.20%, China -1.05%, Taiwan +0.66%, Australia -0.16%, Singapore +0.43%, South Korea +0.60%, India +0.38%.  Asian markets followed the slide in the S&P 500 Tuesday to a fresh 14-1/2 month low as the Shanghai Composite fell to a 1-1/2 month low and the Nikkei Stock Index dropped to an 8-1/2 month low.

*The dollar index (DXY00 -0.28%) is down -0.31%.  EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.33%) is up +0.35% at a 1-week high.  USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.15%) is down -0.16% at a 1-1/2 month low.

*Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH19 +0-010) are up +2 ticks at a new contract high.

*The Japan Nov trade balance was in deficit by -737.3 billion yen, wider than consensus of -630.0 billion yen and the largest deficit in 10 months.  Nov exports rose +0.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.2% y/y.  Nov imports rose +12.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +11.8% y/y.

*German Nov PPI of +0.1% m/m and +3.3% y/y was stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m and +3.1% y/y.

*UK Nov CPI rose +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y, right on expectations.  Nov core CPI rose +1.8% y/y, right on expectations.

*UK Dec CBI trends total orders fell -2 to 8, stronger than expectations of -4 to 6.Dec CBI trends selling prices unexpectedly rose +5 to 14, stronger than expectations of -1 to 8.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**U.S. Stock Preview**


*Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous +1.6% to 346.0 with purchase sub-index +2.5% to 256.1 and refi sub-index +1.8% to 851.6), (2) Q3 current account deficit (expected -$125.0 billion, Q2 -$101.5 billion), (3) Nov existing home sales (expected -0.4% to 5.20 million, Oct +1.4% to 5.22 million), (4) EIA weekly Petroleum Status Report, (5) FOMC announces interest rate decision (+25 bp increase in fed funds target range expected to 2.25% to 2.50% from current 2.00% to 2.25%) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference following FOMC meeting.

*Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: General Mills (consensus $0.81), Paychex (0.63).

*U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

*Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: none.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


**Overnight U.S. Stock Movers**

*Darden Restaurants (DRI +5.02%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BTIG LLC with a price target of $119.

*Eli Lilly (LLY -1.72%) may open higher initially this morning after it forecast 2019 adjusted EPS of $5.90 to $6.00, stronger than consensus of $5.82

*Ulta Beauty (ULTA -0.43%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Citigroup with a price target of $315.

*SL Green Realty (SLG -0.62%) was downgraded o 'Underweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.

*Xylem (XYL +0.14%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel with a price target of $75.

*Under Armour (UAA +2.23%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Neutral' with a price target of $14.

*FedEx (FDX +1.55%) fell -5% in after-hours trading after the company reported that the weak European economy is negatively affecting its earnings and outlook.

*Micron Technology (MU +0.68%) fell -6% in after-hours trading on a weak Q2 sales outlook.

*Jabil (JBL +3.01%) rallied sharply by +11% in after-hours trading after the company's Q2 core EPS forecast beat estimates.

*Alkermes (ALKS -3.43%) fell 5% in after-hours trading after Goldman downgraded its rating and cut its target on the company.
 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


**Market Comments**

*Mar S&P 500 E-minis (ESH19 +0.87%) this morning are up +21.00 points (+0.83%).  Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.01%, Dow Jones +0.35%, Nasdaq 100 +0.67%.  The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed little changed.  Stocks were supported by the +3.2% increase in U.S. Nov housing starts to 1.256 million (vs expectations of unch at 1.228 mln), and by the unexpected +5.0% increase in Nov building permits to a 7-month high of 1.328 mln.  There was also support from strength in technology stocks led by a rally in semiconductor chip makers.  Energy stocks were a drag on the overall market as Jan WTI crude oil prices plunged -7.30% to a 1-1/4 year low.

*Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH19 +0-010) this morning are up +2 ticks at a new contract high.  Tuesday's closes: TYH9 +6.5, FVH9 +5.25.  Mar 10-year T-notes on Tuesday climbed to a 1-week high and closed higher on the plunge in crude oil prices to a 1-1/4 year low, which reduced inflation expectations.  T-note prices were also supported by continued safe-haven demand with the global stock market turmoil.  T-note prices were  undercut by the stronger-than-expected U.S. Nov housing starts and building permits reports.

*The dollar index (DXY00 -0.28%) this morning is down -0.299 (-0.31%), EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.33%) is up +0.0040 (+0.35%) at a 1-week high, and USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.15%) is down -0.18 (-0.16%) at a 1-1/2 month low.  Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.004 (+0.00%), EUR/USD +0.0013 (+0.11%), USD/JPY -0.31 (-0.27%).  The dollar index on Tuesday fell to a 1-week low but recovered and closed the day little changed.  The dollar was undercut by the decline in the 10-year T-note yield to a 3-1/2 month low, which hurt the dollar's interest rate differentials.  USD/JPY dropped to a 1-week low as the global stock market turmoil boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen.

*Metals prices this morning are mixed with Feb gold (GCG19 -0.13%) -1.5 (-0.12%), Mar silver (SIH19 +0.20%) +0.019 (+0.13%), and Mar copper (HGH19 +0.47%) +0.013 (+0.49%).  Tuesday's closes: Feb Comex gold (GCG19) on Tuesday closed up +1.8 (+0.14%), and Mar Comex silver (SIH19) closed down -0.058 (-0.39%).  A slide in the dollar index to a 1-week low Tuesday gave gold prices a boost.  Also, recent stock market turmoil that pushed the S&P 500 to a 14-1/2 month low Monday has been a bullish factor for gold on increased demand for gold as a store of wealth after long gold positions in ETFs rose to a 4-3/4 month high Monday.  Silver prices were weighed down by industrial metals demand concerns after a keynote speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping failed to offer any new initiatives to spur growth in China's economy.  Losses in silver were limited on Tuesday's stronger-than-expected U.S. Nov housing starts report of +3.2% to 1.256 million units (vs expectations of -0.2 to 1.226 million), which was positive for industrial metals demand.

*Jan WTI crude oil (CLF19 +0.82%) prices this morning are up +14 cents (+0.30%) and Jan gasoline (RBF19 +0.77%) is +0.61 (+0.45%).  Tuesday's closes: Jan WTI crude oil (CLF19) on Tuesday closed down by -$3.64 per barrel (-7.30%) and Feb Brent crude (CBG19) closed down -$3.62 (-6.07%).  Jan RBOB gasoline (RBF19) closed down by -0.0599 cents per gallon (-4.25%).  The energy complex sold off sharply Tuesday with Jan WTI crude oil at a 1-1/4 year low, Feb Brent crude at a 14-month low, and Jan RBOB gasoline at a 2-year low.  Concern about higher global supply spurred fund selling in the energy complex Tuesday after the EIA forecast that U.S. Jan shale-oil crude production will climb to 8.166 million bpd, up +136,000 bpd (+1.7% m/m) from 8.030 million bpd forecast for Dec.  Also, crude prices fell back on expectations that Wednesday's weekly EIA data will show crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, will climb +1.3 million bbl.  Finally, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative showed that Saudi Arabian Oct crude production rose to a record 10.64 million bpd and that Saudi Oct crude exports rose to a 22-month high of 7.7 million bpd.  A slide in the dollar index to a 1-week low Tuesday was a supportive factor for crude along with expectations that Wednesday's weekly EIA U.S. crude inventories will decline by -3.25 million bbl.
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General Advice Disclosure: Please note that the advice contained herein is general advice and is for the purposes of education only. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options, stocks, stock options and forex currencies can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You are reminded that past performance is no guarantee or reliable indication of future results. It has not been prepared taking into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.You should therefore assess whether the advice is appropriate to your individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. You should do this before making an investment decision based on this general advice. You can either make the assessment yourself or seek the help of a professional adviser. This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. The Vulcan Report accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents. For Related news and other stories please visit - http://www.wideawakenews.com/ For Related videos on our Youtube channel please visit - http://www.youtube.com/user/pulsescan72 Be Sure to register for faster updates and commentaries at - BLOG 1: - http://pulsescan.blogspot.com/ BLOG 2: - http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/466159-pulsescan72/ BULLS make money... BEARS make money.... PIGS get slaughtered! "TAKE WHAT YOU CAN .........GIVE NOTHING BACK"!!

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

12/18/2018 - **Overnight Markets and News**

**Overnight Markets and News**

*Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH19 +0.39%) this morning are up +0.39% as stock prices stabilize following Monday's plunge to a 14-1/2 month low.  European stocks are up +0.02% as they gave up most of their gains after German Dec IFO business fell more than expected to a 2-year low.  Weakness in energy stocks and commodity producers are limiting the upside in the overall market as global demand concerns weigh on industrial metals and crude prices with Mar COMEX copper (HGH19 -1.56%) down -1.52% at a 1-month low and Jan WTI crude oil (CLF19 -2.81%) down -2.93% at a 1-1/4 year low.  Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -1.82%, Hong Kong -1.05%, China -0.82%, Taiwan -0.70%, Australia -1.22%, Singapore -2.21%, South Korea -0.42%, India +0.21%.  China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 2-week low on negative carry-over from Monday's plunge in U.S. equity markets along with a keynote speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping to mark China's 40th anniversary of the Reform and Opening Up campaign that offered no fresh commitments to open up or stimulate China's economy.

*The dollar index (DXY00 -0.31%) is down -0.35% at a 1-week low as the decline in the 10-year T-note yield to at a 3-1/2 month low of 2.821% undercuts the dollar's interest rate differentials.  EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.35%) is up +0.35% at a 1-week high.  USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.42%) is down -0.43% at a 1-week low.

*Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH19 +0-045) are up +6 ticks at a 1-week high.

*The German Dec IFO business climate fell-1.0 to a 2-year low of 101.0, weaker than expectations of -0.3 to 101.7.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**U.S. Stock Preview**

*Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Nov housing starts (expected -0.2% to 1.226 million, Oct +1.5% to 1.228 million), (2) FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting.

*Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: FedEx (consensus $3.94), Darden Restaurants (0.91), FactSet Research (2.29), Jabil (0.88), Micron Technology (2.94).

*U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

*Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: none.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


**Overnight U.S. Stock Movers**

*Norfolk Southern (NSC -2.19%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase with a price target of $203.

*CVS Health (CVS -1.66%) was rated a new 'Overweight' at Barclays with a price target of $91.

*Boeing (BA -0.82%) gained more than 1% in after-hours trading after it boosted its share buyback plan by $2 billion to $20 billion from $18 billion and boosted its quarterly dividend to $2.055 per share from $1.71 per share.

*Johnson & Johnson (JNJ -2.90%) rose nearly 1% in after-hours trading after it said it will buy back as much as $5 billion of its own stock.

*Abbott Laboratories (ABT -1.43%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse with a price target of $82.

*HealthEquity (HQY -3.96%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Cantor Fitzgerald with a price target of $82.

*Edwards Lifesciences (EW -3.19%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse with a price target of $188.

*Oracle (ORCL -1.87%) gained more than 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 80 cents, better than consensus of 78 cents.

*EOG Resources (EOG -3.87%) was rated a new 'Buy' at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey with a price target of $130.

*Boston Scientific (BSX -4.89%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse with a price target of $42.

*Marathon Oil (MRO -2.13%) was rated a new 'Buy' at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey with a price target of $25.

*Puma Biotechnology (PBYI -5.14%) climbed more than 5% in after-hours trading after it reported positive results in its Phase III trial of its Neratinib in patients with metastatic breast cancer.
 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


**Market Comments**

*Mar S&P 500 E-minis (ESH19 +0.39%) this morning are up +10.00 points (+0.39%).  Monday's closes: S&P 500 -2.08%, Dow Jones -2.11%, Nasdaq 100 -2.22%.  The S&P 500 on Monday sold off to a 14-1/2 month low and closed sharply lower.  Stocks were undercut by fears that the FOMC at its Tue/Wed meeting might not only raise interest rates but might also signal that its rate-hike regime will continue unabated.  There was also weakness in insurance and health care stocks after a court ruling late last Friday jeopardized Obamacare by declaring key elements of the program unconstitutional.  Stocks were also undercut by weak U.S. economic data with the -12.4 point decline in the U.S. Dec Empire manufacturing index to a 1-1/2 year low of 10.9 (weaker than expectations of -3.3 to 20.0).  There was also weakness in homebuilders after the U.S. Dec NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell -4 to a 3-1/2 year low of 56, weaker than expectations of unchanged.

*Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH19 +0-045) this morning are up +6 ticks at a 1-week high.  Monday's closes: TYH9 +8.5, FVH9 +5.00.  Mar 10-year T-notes on Monday closed higher on the weaker-than-expected Dec Empire manufacturing index and Dec NAHB housing market index.  T-notes were also supported by increased safe-haven demand with the slump in the S&P 500 to a 14-1/2 month low and by the decline in the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate to a 1-1/4 year low.

*The dollar index (DXY00 -0.31%) this morning is down -0.344 (-0.35%) at a 1-week low, EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.35%) is up +0.0040 (+0.35%) at a 1-week high, and USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.42%) is down -0.49 (-0.43% at a 1-week low.  Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.311 (-0.32%), EUR/USD +0.0042 (+0.37%), USD/JPY -0.56 (-0.49%).  The dollar index on Monday closed lower on the sell-off in the S&P 500 to a 14-1/2 month low, which boosted safe-haven demand for the yen and knocked USD/JPY to a 1-week low.  The dollar was also undercut by the weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data on Dec Empire manufacturing and the Dec NAHB housing market index, which was dovish for Fed policy.

*Metals prices this morning are mixed with Feb gold (GCG19 +0.02%) +1.4 (+0.11%), Mar silver (SIH19 -0.37%) -0.019 (-0.13%), and Mar copper (HGH19 -1.56%) -0.042 (-1.52%) at a 1-month low.  Monday's closes: Feb Comex gold (GCG19) on Monday closed up +10.4 (+0.84%) and Mar Comex silver (SIH19) closed up +0.122 (+0.83%).  A weaker dollar pushed metals prices higher Monday along with a selloff in stocks.  The S&P 500 tumbled to a 10-1/4 month low Monday, which boosted safe-haven demand for gold.  Recent stock market turmoil has been a bullish factor for gold on increased demand for gold as a store of wealth after long gold positions in ETFs rose to a 4-1/2 month high last Friday.  On the negative side for silver is weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data that signals reduced demand for industrial metals after Monday's Dec Empire manufacturing index dropped to a 1-1/2 year low and the Dec NAHB housing market index plunged to a 3-1/2 year low.  Also, fund selling of silver continues as long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 5-1/2 month low last Friday.  A negative factor for gold is reduced inflation expectations, which curbs demand for gold as an inflation hedge, after the 10-year T-note inflation expectations rate sank to a 1-1/4 year low.

*Jan WTI crude oil prices (CLF19 -2.81%) this morning are down -$1.46 per barrel (-2.93%) at a 1-1/4 year low and Jan gasoline (RBF19 -2.32%) is down -3.38 cents per gallon (-2.40%) at a 2-week low.  Monday's closes: Jan WTI crude oil (CLF19) on Monday closed down by -$1.32 per barrel (-2.58%) and Feb Brent crude (CBG19) closed down -$0.67 (-1.11%).  Jan RBOB gasoline (RBF19) closed down by -2.39 cents per gallon (-1.67%).  Crude oil gave up an early rally Monday and sold off to a 2-week low on signs of increased global production and suspect energy demand.  Russian oil crude output is on the rise after Interfax reported that Russian December crude production rose by +60,000 bpd to 11.43 million bpd from November's level.  Also, a slump in the S&P 500 to a 14-1/2 month low Monday undercut confidence in the economic outlook and in energy demand.  Crude prices opened higher Monday on the lower dollar and on positive carry-over from last Friday's data from Baker Hughes that showed active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended December 14 fell by -4 rigs to a 1-3/4 month low of 873 rigs.
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General Advice Disclosure: Please note that the advice contained herein is general advice and is for the purposes of education only. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options, stocks, stock options and forex currencies can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You are reminded that past performance is no guarantee or reliable indication of future results. It has not been prepared taking into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.You should therefore assess whether the advice is appropriate to your individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. You should do this before making an investment decision based on this general advice. You can either make the assessment yourself or seek the help of a professional adviser. This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. The Vulcan Report accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents. For Related news and other stories please visit - http://www.wideawakenews.com/ For Related videos on our Youtube channel please visit - http://www.youtube.com/user/pulsescan72 Be Sure to register for faster updates and commentaries at - BLOG 1: - http://pulsescan.blogspot.com/ BLOG 2: - http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/466159-pulsescan72/ BULLS make money... BEARS make money.... PIGS get slaughtered! "TAKE WHAT YOU CAN .........GIVE NOTHING BACK"!!

Monday, December 17, 2018

12/17/2018 - **Overnight Markets and News**

**Overnight Markets and News**

*Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH19 -0.12%) this morning are down -0.08% on weakness in retail stocks, led by a 4% decline in Best Buy in pre-market trading, after it was downgraded to 'Underperform‘ at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.  Also weighing on the market is concern there could be a partial shutdown of the U.S. government Friday night if lawmakers and President Trump fail to resolve funding for President Trump's wall along the Mexican border.  European stocks are down -0.49% as weakness in retailers drags the overall market lower.  UK's Asos Plc plunged nearly 40% after it cut its full-year sales-growth guidance and warned the Christmas shopping season got off to a disastrous start.  Losses in the overall market were limited as energy stocks advanced with Jan WTI crude oil (CLF19 +1.11%) up +1.19% after last Friday afternoon's data from Baker Hughes showed active U.S. oil rigs fell to an 8-week low.  Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +0.62%, Hong Kong -0.03%, China +0.16%, Taiwan +0.14%, Australia +1.00%, Singapore +1.21%, South Korea +0.29%, India +0.85%.  China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 2-week low and eked out a small gain as a rally in energy producers lifted the overall market.

*The dollar index (DXY00 -0.25%) is down -0.32%.  EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.30%) is up +0.33%.  USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.07%) is down -0.10%.

*Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH19 +0-020) are up +2 ticks.

*Eurozone Nov CPI was revised lower to +1.9% y/y from the originally reported +2.0% y/y, the slowest pace of increase in 6 months.  Nov core CPI was left unrevised at +1.0% y/y.

*China Nov new home prices rose +0.98% m/m and +10.3% y/y.  Home prices rose in 63 cities in Nov, down from 65 that rose in Oct.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**U.S. Stock Preview**

*Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Dec Empire manufacturing index (expected -3.3 to 20.0, Nov +2.2 to 23.3), (2) Dec NAHB housing market index (expected +1 to 61, Nov -8 to 60).

*Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Oracle (consensus $0.78), Red Hat (0.87), HEICO (0.48).

*U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

*Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: none.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


**Overnight U.S. Stock Movers**

*Best Buy (BBY -1.00%) is down 4% in pre-market trading after it was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.

*Illinois Tool Works (ITW -1.65%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $125.

*Lululemon Athletica (LULU -0.90%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel with a price target of $151.

*Sherwin-Williams (SHW +0.03%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral" at JPMorgan Chase with a price target of $415.

*Skechers (SKX -2.59%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Stifel with a price target of $32.

*LyondellBasell (LYB -1.60%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $95.

*TE Connectivity Ltd (TEL -0.79%) may open higher initially this morning after its board added $1.5 billion to its share repurchase program and recommended the annual dividend rate be increased by about 4.5%.

*Raytheon (RTN -1.50%) may open higher initially this morning after it reported that it had won a $149.4 million contract from the U.S. Navy for the engineering, manufacturing and development of the Standard Missle-2 Block IIIC.

*Yangtze River Port & Logistics Ltd (YRIV -7.69%) jumped 13% in after-hours trading on signs of insider buying after CEO Liu reported to the SEC that he bought $1.7 million in shares of the company's stock.

*Anworth Mortgage Asset (ANH +1.34%) may open lower initially this morning after it unexpectedly cut its quarterly dividend to 13 cents a share from 14 cents a share. 

*Catalyst Pharmaceuticals (CPRX -4.88%) rose 3% in after-hours trading on signs of insider buying after company Director O'Keefe reported a purchase of 20,000 shares of the company's stock.
 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


**Market Comments**

*Mar S&P 500 E-minis (ESH19 -0.12%) this morning are down -2.00 points (-0.08%).  Friday's closes: S&P 500 -1.91%, Dow Jones -2.02%, Nasdaq 100 -2.56%.  The S&P 500 on Friday closed sharply lower on concern about the health of the global economy after China Nov industrial production growth eased to a 10-year low of +5.4% y/y and after the Eurozone Dec Markit manufacturing PMI fell -0.4 to a 2-3/4 year low of 51.4 (weaker than expectations of unchanged at 51.8).  There were also signs of a slowdown in U.S. manufacturing activity after the U.S. Dec Markit manufacturing PMI fell -1.4 to a 1-year low of 53.9, weaker than expectations of -0.3 to 55.0.  Energy stocks were weak as crude oil prices fell -2.62%.

*Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH19 +0-020) this morning are up +2 ticks.  Friday's closes: TYH9 +5.0, FVH9 +4.00.  Mar 10-year T-notes on Friday closed higher on the sell-off in global equity markets on economic growth concerns, which boosted the safe-haven demand for T-notes.  T-note prices were also boosted by the slide in the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate to a 1-1/4 year low.

*The dollar index (DXY00 -0.25%) this morning is down -0.31 (-0.32%), EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.30%) is up +0.0037 (+0.33%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.07%) is down -0.11 (-0.10%).  Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.379 (+0.39%), EUR/USD -0.0055 (-0.48%), USD/JPY -0.24 (-0.21%).  The dollar index on Friday rallied to a 1-1/2 year high and closed higher on the slightly stronger-than-expected U.S. Nov retail sales report of +0.2% (+0.9% in the retail sales control group).  There was also weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 2-week low after Eurozone Dec Markit PMI fell more than expected (-0.4 to 51.4) to its slowest pace of growth in 2-3/4 years.

*Metals prices this morning are mixed with Feb gold (GCG19 +0.17%) +2.0 (+0.16%), Mar silver (SIH19 +0.33%) +0.033 (+0.23%), and Mar copper (HGH19 -0.89%) -0.024 (-0.85%).  Friday's closes: Feb Comex gold (GCG19) on Friday closed down -6.0 (-0.48%) and Mar Comex silver (SIH19) closed down -0.218 (-1.47%).  Feb gold and Mar silver retreated to 1-week lows Friday due to dollar strength as the dollar index surged to a 1-1/2 year high.  An easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China also reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals after China said it will remove the retaliatory 25% tariff on automobiles imported from the U.S. for three months starting Jan 1.  Concern about global demand for industrial metals undercut silver prices after China Nov industrial production rose a weaker-than-expected +5.4% y/y, the slowest pace in 10 years, and after the Eurozone Dec Markit manufacturing PMI showed a larger-than-expected -0.4 point decline to 51.4, the slowest pace of expansion in 2-3/4 years.  Finally, fund selling of silver continues as long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 5-1/2 month low Thursday.  On the positive side for gold is recent stock market volatility that has boosted demand for gold as a store of wealth after long gold positions in ETFs rose to a 4-1/2 month high Thursday.

*Jan WTI crude oil prices (CLF19 +1.11%) this morning are up +61 cents (+1.19%) and Jan gasoline (RBF19 +1.30%) is up +2.16 cents (+1.51%).  Friday's closes: Jan WTI crude oil (CLF19) on Friday closed down by -$1.48 per barrel (-2.62%) and Feb Brent crude (CBG19) closed down -$1.17 (-1.90%).  Jan RBOB gasoline (RBF19) closed down by -4.39 cents per gallon (-2.97%).  The energy complex was under pressure Friday due to strength in the dollar as the dollar index soared to a 1-1/2 year high.  Also, economic weakness in China, the world's second-largest crude consumer, raised energy demand concerns after China Nov industrial production rose a less-than-expected +5.4% y/y, the slowest pace in 10 years.  On the positive side was positive U.S. economic data after U.S. Nov retail sales rose +0.2%, slightly stronger than expectations of +0.1%.  The early-afternoon Baker Hughes data was also supportive since it showed that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended December 14 fell by -4 rigs to a 1-3/4 month low of 873, although that was still high at only 15 rigs below the recent 3-3/4 year high of 888 rigs posted in the week ended Nov 16.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------




General Advice Disclosure: Please note that the advice contained herein is general advice and is for the purposes of education only. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options, stocks, stock options and forex currencies can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You are reminded that past performance is no guarantee or reliable indication of future results. It has not been prepared taking into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.You should therefore assess whether the advice is appropriate to your individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. You should do this before making an investment decision based on this general advice. You can either make the assessment yourself or seek the help of a professional adviser. This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. The Vulcan Report accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents. For Related news and other stories please visit - http://www.wideawakenews.com/ For Related videos on our Youtube channel please visit - http://www.youtube.com/user/pulsescan72 Be Sure to register for faster updates and commentaries at - BLOG 1: - http://pulsescan.blogspot.com/ BLOG 2: - http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/466159-pulsescan72/ BULLS make money... BEARS make money.... PIGS get slaughtered! "TAKE WHAT YOU CAN .........GIVE NOTHING BACK"!!

Friday, December 14, 2018

12/14/2018 - **Overnight Markets and News**

**Overnight Markets and News**

*Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH19 -0.91%) this morning are down -0.80% and European stocks are down -0.87% on global growth concerns.  Eurozone Dec manufacturing activity expanded at the slowest pace in 2-3/4 years and Eurozone Nov new car registrations declined for a third month.  Weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data on Nov industrial production and retail sales also shows signs of slower global growth and weighed on stock prices.  U.S. and European stocks recovered from their worst levels after China said it will remove the retaliatory 25% tariff on automobiles imported from the U.S. for three months starting Jan 1.  Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -2.02%, Hong Kong -1.62%, China -1.53%, Taiwan -0.86%, Australia -1.05%, Singapore -1.09%, South Korea -1.43%, India +0.09%.  Signs of a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity weighed on Asian equity markets after China Nov industrial production rose a weaker-than-expected +5.4% y/y, the slowest pace of increase in 10 years.

*The dollar index (DXY00 +0.52%) is up +0.57% at a 1-month high.  EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.57%) is down -0.62% at a 2-week low.  USD/JPY (^USDJPY unch) is down -0.03.

*Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH19 +0-085) are up +8 ticks as the slide in global equity markets boosts safe-haven demand for T-notes.

*The Eurozone Dec Markit manufacturing PMI fell -0.4 to 51.4, weaker than expectations of no change at 51.8 and the slowest pace of expansion in 2-3/4 years.

*Eurozone Nov new car registrations fell -8.0% y/y to 1.121 million and year-to-date are up +0.8% to 14.160 million,

*Eurozone Q3 labor costs rose +2.5% y/y, the fastest pace of increase in more than 7 years.

*The German Dec Markit/BME manufacturing PMI fell -0.3 to 51.5, weaker than expectations of -0.1 to 51.7 and the slowest pace of expansion in 2-3/4 years.

*China Nov industrial production rose +5.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +5.9% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 10 years.

*China Nov retail sale rose +8.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +8.8% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 15-1/2 years.

*The Japan Q4 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions was unch at 19, stronger than expectations of -1 to 18.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**U.S. Stock Preview**

*Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Nov retail sales (expected +0.1% and +0.2% ex autos, Oct +0.8% and +0.7% ex autos), (2) Nov manufacturing production (expected +0.3%, Oct +0.3%) and Nov industrial production (expected +0.3%, Oct +0.1%), (3) prelim-Dec Markit manufacturing PMI (expected -0.3 to 55.0, Nov -0.4 to 55.3) and prelim-Dec Markit U.S. services PMI (expected -0.1 to 54.6, Nov -0.1 to 54.7), (4) Oct business inventories (expected +0.6%, Sep +0.3%).

*Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: none.

*U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Mercantil Bank Holding (AMTB).

*Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: none.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


**Overnight U.S. Stock Movers**

*Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA -0.15%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $68.

*Universal Health Services (UHS +0.53%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $125.

*Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN +0.15%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $472.

*Adobe (ADBE +1.03%) gained 0.5% in after0hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.90, better than consensus  of $1.88. 

*Costco Wholesale (COST -0.57%) slid 2% in afterhours trading after it reported an unexpected $43 million charge related to its co-branded credit card program

*Procter & Gamble (PG +2.62%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal-Weight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $106.

*Autoliv (ALV -2.46%) was rate a new 'Sell' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $61.

*Starbucks (SBUX +1.18%) fell nearly 3% in after-hours trading after CFO Grismer forecast 1% to 3% growth in China over the long-term, slower than the 3% to 4% growth seen for the U.S. and the rest of the world.

*BorgWarner (BWA -1.94%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $47.

*Veoneer (VNE -3.99%) was rated a new 'Sell' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $21.

*Alliant Energy (LNT +0.50%) lost more than 2% in after-hours trading after it announced that it plans to sell $326 million of its common stock in an underwritten public offering.

*CytomX Therapeutics (CTMX -1.00%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $21.

*Ford Motor (F -1.62%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $12.

*Civitas (CIVI -4.10%) may move higher initially this morning after it reported Q4 adjusted Ebitda of $43.5 million, higher than consensus of $40.1 million.
 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


**Market Comments**

*Mar S&P 500 E-minis (ESH19 -0.91%) this morning are down -21.25 points (-0.80%).  Thursday's closes: S&P 500 -0.02%, Dow Jones +0.29%, Nasdaq 100 +0.06%.  The S&P 500 on Thursday closed lower on continued U.S.-China trade tensions after U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross said China will need to do more than what it has promised so far to ease trade tensions with the U.S.  Stocks were also undercut by global growth concerns after the ECB cut its Eurozone 2018 GDP forecast to 1.9% from a prior estimate of 2.0% and cut its 2019 GDP forecast to 1.7% from 1.9%.  There was weakness in airline stocks after Delta Air Lines forecast weaker-than-expected 2019 profit.  Stocks found support on the -27,000 decline in U.S. weekly jobless claims to a 2-3/4 month low of 206,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of -5,000 to 226,000.  There was also strength in energy stocks with crude oil prices up +2.80%.

*Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH19 +0-085) this morning are up +8 ticks.  Thursday's closes: TYH9 unch, FVH9 +0.75.  Mar 10-year T-notes on Thursday closed little changed.  T-note prices were undercut by carry-over weakness from a drop in 10-year German bunds to a 1-week low after the ECB confirmed that it will end QE at the end of the month.  T-note prices were also undercut by the larger-than-expected fall in U.S. weekly jobless claims to a 2-3/4 month low, which was hawkish for Fed policy.  T-notes found some support from weakness in stocks that boosted safe-haven demand for T-notes.

*The dollar index (DXY00 +0.52%) this morning is up +0.552 (+0.57%) at a 1-month high, EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.57%) is down -0.0071 (-0.62%) at a 2-week low, and USD/JPY  (^USDJPY unch) is down -0.03 (-0.03%).  Thursday's closes: Dollar Index +0.020 (+0.02%), EUR/USD -0.0008 (-0.07%), USD/JPY +0.34 (+0.30%).  The dollar index on Thursday closed higher on signs of strength in the U.S. labor market that is hawkish for Fed policy after weekly initial unemployment claims fell more than expected to a 2-3/4 month low (-27,000 to 206,000).  There was also weakness in EUR/USD after the ECB cut its Eurozone 2018 and 2019 GDP forecasts.

*Metals prices this morning are weaker with Feb gold (GCG19 -0.41%) -5.2 (-0.42%) at a 1-week low, Mar silver (SIH19 -1.18%) -0.170 (-1.14%), and Mar copper (HGH19 -1.08%) -0.029 (-1.03%).  Thursday's closes: Feb Comex gold (GCG19) on Thursday closed down -2.6 (-0.21%) and Mar Comex silver (SIH19) closed up +0.004 (+0.03%).  A stronger dollar Thursday weighed on metals prices along with Thursday's confirmation by the European Central Bank (ECB) that it will end its bond-buying quantitative easing (QE) program at the end of this month.  A larger-than-expected -27,000 decline in U.S. weekly jobless claims to a 2-3/4 month low of 206,000 is another negative for metals prices since that is hawkish for Fed policy.  Mar silver climbed to a 5-week high on speculation that an easing of U.S.-China trade tensions will boost economic growth that leads to increased demand for industrial metals.  Silver prices fell back from their best levels after the ECB cut its Eurozone GDP forecast for 2018 and 2019, which implies reduced demand for industrial metals.  In addition, fund selling of silver continues as long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 5-1/2 month low Wednesday.  Losses in gold were contained as recent stock market volatility has boosted demand for gold as a store of wealth after long gold positions in ETFs rose to a 4-1/2 month high Wednesday.

*Jan WTI crude oil prices (CLF19 -0.59%) this morning are down -30 cents (-0.57%) and Jan gasoline (RBF19 -1.50%) is down -2.25 cents (-1.52%).  Thursday's closes: Jan WTI crude oil (CLF19) on Thursday closed up by +$1.43 per barrel (+2.80%) and Feb Brent crude (CBG19) closed up +$1.30 (+2.16%).  Jan RBOB gasoline (RBF19) closed up by +5.78 cents per gallon (+4.07%).  Crude prices erased early losses Thursday and moved higher on a report from Genscape that crude inventories at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, will decline by -821,985 bbl the week ended Dec 11.  A sign of strength in the U.S. economy was also supportive for crude prices after weekly jobless claims fell to a 2-3/4 month low.  Crude prices opened lower Thursday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that while crude production cuts announced last week by OPEC+ "may go some way towards restoring balance to the world market," there's still potential for "significant oversupply."  A stronger dollar Thursday was another negative for crude prices.  Gasoline prices found support on strength in the crack spread that rose to a 3-session high, which may push refiners to purchase more crude to refine into gasoline.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------




General Advice Disclosure: Please note that the advice contained herein is general advice and is for the purposes of education only. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options, stocks, stock options and forex currencies can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You are reminded that past performance is no guarantee or reliable indication of future results. It has not been prepared taking into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.You should therefore assess whether the advice is appropriate to your individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. You should do this before making an investment decision based on this general advice. You can either make the assessment yourself or seek the help of a professional adviser. This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. The Vulcan Report accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents. For Related news and other stories please visit - http://www.wideawakenews.com/ For Related videos on our Youtube channel please visit - http://www.youtube.com/user/pulsescan72 Be Sure to register for faster updates and commentaries at - BLOG 1: - http://pulsescan.blogspot.com/ BLOG 2: - http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/466159-pulsescan72/ BULLS make money... BEARS make money.... PIGS get slaughtered! "TAKE WHAT YOU CAN .........GIVE NOTHING BACK"!!

Thursday, December 13, 2018

12/13/2018 - **Overnight Markets and News**

**Overnight Markets and News**

*Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ18 -0.02%) this morning are down -0.10% and European stocks are up +0.02%.  U.S. equity futures and European stocks shed overnight gains as weakness in energy stocks drags the overall market lower.  Jan WTI crude oil (CLF19 -1.33%) is down -1.17% on concern that crude production cuts by OPEC+ will be insufficient to avert a global oil surplus.  Stocks had pushed higher in overnight trade on signs of a thaw in American-China trade relations.  The U.S. Soybean Council reported that China bought 1.5 MMT to 2.0 MMT of U.S. soybeans, its first purchase since both countries began tit-for-tat tariffs.  Mining stocks are higher as reduced trade tensions between the U.S. and China lifts copper prices, with Mar COMEX copper (HGH19 +0.51%) up +0.45% at a 1-week high.  European stocks found support on reduced Brexit concerns after UK Prime Minister May beat back an attempt by members of her Conservative Party to oust her from power with a no-confidence vote.  Gains in European stocks were limited on a report that the ECB will lower its Eurozone 2018 inflation and economic growth forecasts when its policy meeting concludes later this morning.  Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +0.99%, Hong Kong +1.29%, China +1.23%, Taiwan +0.43%, Australia +0.14%, Singapore +0.36%, South Korea +0.35%, India +0.42%.  China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's Nikkei Stock Index both climbed to 1-week highs as woes over global trade tensions ease on signs that the U.S. and China are both willing to compromise to end their trade disputes.

*The dollar index (DXY00 -0.07%) is down -0.07%.  EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.10%) is up +0.09%.  USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.14%) is up 0.13%.

*Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH19 +0-015) are up +2 ticks.

*German Nov CPI (EU harmonized) was left unrevised at +0.1% m/m and +2.2% y/y.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**U.S. Stock Preview**

*Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -5,000 to 226,000, previous -4,000 to 231,000) and continuing claims (expected +18,000 to 1.649 million, previous -74,000 to 1.631 million), (2) Nov import price index (expected -1.0% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Oct +0.5% m/m and +3.5% y/y) and Nov import price index ex-petroleum (expected -0.1% m/m, Oct +0.2% m/m), (3) Treasury auctions $16 billion of 30-year T-bonds.

*Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Adobe (consensus $1.88), Costco (1.62).

*U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: 360 Finance (QFIN), Legacy Housing Corp (LEGH).

*Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: none.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


**Overnight U.S. Stock Movers**

*Five Below (FIVE +1.94%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $122.

*Ultimate Software Group (ULTI +0.06%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'In-line' at Evercore ISI with a price target of $310.

*XPO Logistics (XPO -9.63%) was rated a new 'Buy' at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey with a price target of $83.

*Procter & Gamble (PG +0.13%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch with a price target of $108.

*Oxford Industries (OXM +1.20%) dropped nearly 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 net sales of $233.7 million, weaker consensus of $243 million, and then forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $4.20 to $4.35, well below consensus of $4.60.

*Ryder System (R +0.10%) was rated a new 'Buy' at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey with a price target of $63.

*Tailored Brands (TLRD +1.51%) sank 24% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 net sales of $812.7 million, weaker than consensus of $819.5 million, and then forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $2.30 to $2.35, the midpoint below consensus of $2.35.

*Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital (HASI -0.65%) fell 4% in after-hours trading after it announced it will sell 5 million shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering.

*Echo Global Logistics (ECHO -2.07%) was rated a new 'Buy' at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey with a price target of $28.

*Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +7.36%) plunged more than 32% in after-hours trading after it said it saw no clinical activity in its XLRS clinical study in the treatment of Retinoschisis.

*Limelight Networks (LLNW +1.26%) tumbled 17% in after-hours trading after it forecast 2018 adjusted EPS of 15-cents to 20 cents, below consensus of 21 cents, and forecast 2018 revenue of $195 million to $196 million, weaker than consensus of $202.5 million.
 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


**Market Comments**

*Dec S&P 500 E-minis (ESZ18 -0.02%) this morning are down -2.75 points (-0.10%).  Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.54%, Dow Jones +0.64%, Nasdaq 100 +0.89%.  The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed higher on carry-over support from a sharp rally in European stocks after UK Prime Minister May survived a party leadership vote.  Stocks were also boosted by optimism about the outlook for U.S.-China trade after the CFO of Huawei Technologies was granted bail in Canada and as President Trump said he would consider intervening in the case if it helps get a trade deal with China.

*Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH19 +0-015) this morning are up +2 ticks.  Wednesday's closes: TYH9 -6.00, FVH9 -3.00.  Mar 10-year T-notes on Wednesday closed lower on the sharp rally in stocks that reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes, and on weak demand for the Treasury's $24 billion auction of 10-year T-notes that had a 2.35 bid-to-cover ratio, below the 12-auction average of 2.51. 

*The dollar index (DXY00 -0.07%) this morning is down -0.064 (-0.07%), EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.10%) is up +0.0010 (+0.09%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.14%) is up +0.15 (+0.13%).  Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.254 (+0.26%), EUR/USD +0.0052 (+0.46%), USD/JPY -0.09 (-0.08%).  The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower on strength in GBP/USD which rose +1.14% after UK Prime Minister May survived a party leadership vote in Parliament.  There was also strength in EUR/USD after Eurozone Oct industrial production rose +0.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m.

*Metals prices this morning are mixed with Feb gold (GCG19 -0.24%) -3.7 (-0.30%), Mar silver (SIH19 -0.44%) -0.071 (-0.48%), and Mar copper (HGH19 +0.51%) +0.013 (+0.45%) at a 1-week high.  Wednesday's closes: Feb Comex gold (GCG19) on Wednesday closed up +2.8 (+0.22%) and Mar Comex silver (SIH19) closed up +0.223 (+1.52%).  Metals prices moved higher Wednesday due to a weaker dollar.  Gold prices also have support from the recent stock market volatility that has boosted demand for gold as a store of wealth as long gold positions in ETFs rose to a 4-1/4 month high Tuesday.  Mar silver posted a 1-month high Wednesday on optimism for the U.S.-China trade outlook after the CFO of Huawei Technologies was granted bail in Canada and President Trump said he would consider intervening in the case if it helps get a trade deal with China.  A slightly stronger-than-expected Eurozone Oct industrial production report of +0.2% m/m (vs expectations of +0.1% m/m) on Wednesday also gave silver prices a lift on signs of stronger demand for industrial metals.

*Jan WTI crude oil prices (CLF19 -1.33%) this morning are down -60 cents (-1.17%( and Jan gasoline (RBF19 -0.73%) is -0.63 (-0.44%).  Wednesday's closes: Jan WTI crude oil (CLF19) on Wednesday closed down by -$0.50 per barrel (-0.97%) and Feb Brent crude (CBG19) closed down -$0.05 (-0.08%).  Jan RBOB gasoline (RBF19) closed down by -1.94 cents per gallon (-1.35%).  Crude prices moved lower Wednesday after weekly EIA crude inventories fell -1.21 million bbl, a smaller decline than expectations of -3.5 million bbl, and after crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, rose +1.15 million bbl to an 11-month high.  Crude prices fell further in afternoon trade on signs of unrest within OPEC after Iran's Oil Minister said "serious political disagreements" exist within OPEC.  A weaker dollar on Wednesday limited losses in the energy complex.




General Advice Disclosure: Please note that the advice contained herein is general advice and is for the purposes of education only. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options, stocks, stock options and forex currencies can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You are reminded that past performance is no guarantee or reliable indication of future results. It has not been prepared taking into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.You should therefore assess whether the advice is appropriate to your individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. You should do this before making an investment decision based on this general advice. You can either make the assessment yourself or seek the help of a professional adviser. This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. The Vulcan Report accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents. For Related news and other stories please visit - http://www.wideawakenews.com/ For Related videos on our Youtube channel please visit - http://www.youtube.com/user/pulsescan72 Be Sure to register for faster updates and commentaries at - BLOG 1: - http://pulsescan.blogspot.com/ BLOG 2: - http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/466159-pulsescan72/ BULLS make money... BEARS make money.... PIGS get slaughtered! "TAKE WHAT YOU CAN .........GIVE NOTHING BACK"!!

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

12/12/2018 - **Overnight Markets and News**

**Overnight Markets and News**

*Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ18 +0.71%) this morning are up +0.73% and European stocks are up +1.32% on optimism for the U.S.-China trade outlook.  The CFO of Huawei Technologies was granted bail in Canada and President Trump said he would consider intervening in the case if it helps get a trade deal with China.  Energy stocks are higher as Jan WTI crude oil (CLF19 +1.78%) climbs +1.78% after API data late Tuesday showed U.S. crude inventories fell -10.2 million bbl last week.  European stocks rose on stronger-than-expected Eurozone Oct industrial production although gains were limited on Brexit concerns ahead of a no confidence vote tonight for UK Prime Minister May in her leadership of the Conservative Party.  GBP/USD is up +0.46% after UK Prime Minster May said a leadership challenge would delay Brexit, or even risk it being canceled altogether and that she "will contest the vote with everything she has."  Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +2.15%, Hong Kong +1.61%, China +0.31%, Taiwan +1.13%, Australia +1.39%, Singapore +1.33%, South Korea +1.43%, India +1.79%.  Asian markets moved higher on speculation progress was being made for a resolution to the U.S-China trade conflict.

*The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) is down -0.03%.  EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.13%) is up +0.10%.  USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.02%) is up +0.04%.

*Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH19 -0-010) are up +0.5 of a tick.

*Eurozone Oct industrial production rose +0.2% m/m and +1.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +0.7% y/y.

*Japan Oct core machine orders rose +7.6% m/m and +4.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +9.7% m/m and +5.0% y/y.

*The Japan Oct tertiary industry index jumped +1.9% m/m, much stronger than expectations of +0.8% m/m and the largest increase in 4-1/2 years.

*Japan Nov PPI of -0.3% m/m and +2.3% y/y was weaker than expectations of -0.1% m/m and +2.4% y/y with the -0.3% m/m decline the largest monthly drop in 2-1/4 years.

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**U.S. Stock Preview**

*Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous +2.0% to 340.5 with purchase sub-index +0.8% to 249.9 and refi sub-index +6.2% to 836.4), (2) EIA weekly Petroleum Status Report, (3) Treasury auctions $24 billion of 10-year T-notes, (4) Nov monthly budget statement (expected -$196.0 billion, Oct -$100.5 billion).

*Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Nordson Corp (consensus $1.47).

*U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: CF Finance Acquisition Corp (CFFAU).

*Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: BMO Prescriptions for Success Healthcare Conference on Wed, Imperial Capital Security Investor Conference on Wed.




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**Overnight U.S. Stock Movers**

*Lululemon Athletica (LULU +1.60%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup with a price target of $152

*Six Flags Entertainment (SIX -2.33%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Berenberg with a price target of $70.

*Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc (JAZZ +0.52%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Oppenheimer with a price target of $180.

*Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY -2.78%) tumbled 15% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 comparable sales fell -1.3%, weaker than expectations of -0.7%.

*First Solar (FSLR -1.76%) gained nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it forecast 2019 net sales of $3.25 billion to $3.45 billion, well above consensus of $2.95 billion.

*Pivotal Software (PVTL -1.28%) jumped 6% in after-hours trading after it raised its full-year revenue forecast to $657 million to $659 million from a prior forecast of $647 million to $653 million.

*Gladstone Land Corp (LAND -1.26%) fell almost 5% in after-hours trading after it announced that it intends to sell $13 million of its common stock in an underwritten public offering.

*American Eagle Outfitters (AEO -2.51%) lost 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 comparable sales rose +8%, weaker than consensus of +8.4%, and then forecast Q4 adjusted EPS of 40 cents to 42 cents, below consensus of 45 cents.

*Hain Celestial Group (HAIN -1.98%) rallied 6% in after-hours trading after its board approved of a strategy committee to evaluate strategic alternatives for the company.

*Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR -0.29%) slid 4% in after-hours trading after it reported a fiscal 2018 loss per share of -65 cents, wider than consensus of -40 cents.

*Fluidigm (FLDM -1.17%) dropped 11% in after-hours trading after it announced that it intends to sell $40 million of its common stock in an underwritten public offering.

*Marinus Pharmaceuticals (MRNS -2.67%) slumped 9% in after-hours trading after it announced that it intends to sell 12 million shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering.
 


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**Market Comments**

*Dec S&P 500 E-minis (ESZ18 +0.71%) this morning are up +19.25 points (+0.73%).  Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 -0.04%, Dow Jones -0.22%, Nasdaq 100 +0.32%.  The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed lower on ramped up U.S. political risks after President Trump threatened to shut down the U.S. government if his demand for funding for a border wall is not met.  Stocks were also undercut by increased wholesale price pressures after U.S. Nov core PPI rose +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y.  Stocks were supported by strength in auto stocks on a report that China is moving toward cutting tariffs on cars made in the U.S. to 15% from the current 40%.  There was also strength in energy stocks as crude oil prices rose +1.27%.

*Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH19 -0-010) this morning are up +0.5 of a tick.  Tuesday's closes: TYH9 -7.50, FVH9 -4.50.  Mar 10-year T-notes on Tuesday closed lower signs of faster wholesale price pressures after U.S. core PPI rose more than expected.  There was also weak demand for the Treasury's $38 billion auction of 3-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.59, weaker than the 12-auction average of 2.80.  T-notes were supported by carry-over support from a rally in German 10-year bunds to a 6-1/2 month high and by reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate dropped to a 13-1/2 month low.

*The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) this morning is down -0.027 (-0.03%), EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.13%) is up +0.0011 (+0.10%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.02%) is up +0.04 (+0.04%).  Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.254 (+0.26%), EUR/USD -0.0039 (-0.34%), USD/JPY +0.05 (+0.04%).  The dollar index on Tuesday climbed to a 4-week high and closed higher on weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 1-week low amid concern French President Macron's 2019 budget plan will boost the budget deficit to 3.4% of GDP, above the EU's 3.0% limit and prompt a downgrade of France's debt rating.  There was also weakness in GBP/USD which fell to a new to a 1-1/2 year low on reports of a potential no-confidence vote against UK Prime Minister May in the British Parliament.

*Metals prices this morning are mixed with Feb gold (GCG19 +0.10%) +2.2 (+0.18%), Mar silver (SIH19 +0.66%) +0,112 (+0.77%), and Mar copper (HGH19 -0.20%)
 -0.006 (-0.22%).  Tuesday's closes: Feb Comex gold (GCG19) on Tuesday closed down -2.2 (-0.18%) and Mar Comex silver (SIH19) closed up +0.023 (+0.16%).  Feb gold erased an early rally and closed lower after the dollar index rallied to a 4-week high.  Gold prices were pressured further after inflation expectations declined as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate tumbled to a 13-3/4 month low, which curbs demand for gold as an inflation hedge.  Gold still has support from the recent turmoil in global equity markets that boosted demand for gold as a store of wealth after long gold positions in ETFs on Monday rose to a 4-1/4 month high.   Mar silver raced up to a 1-month high Tuesday on speculation that industrial metals demand will improve on a report that China is moving toward cutting tariffs on cars made in the U.S. to 15% from the current 40%.  On the negative side for silver, long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 5-1/4 month low Monday.

*Jan WTI crude oil prices (CLF19 +1.78%) this morning are up +92 cents (+1.78%) and Jan gasoline (RBF19 +1.94%) is up +2.76 (+1.92%).  Tuesday's closes: Jan WTI crude oil (CLF19) on Tuesday closed up by +$0.65 per barrel (+1.27%) and Feb Brent crude (CBG19) closed up +$0.60 (+1.00%).  Jan RBOB gasoline (RBF19) closed up by +2.09 cents per gallon (+1.47).  Crude prices moved higher Tuesday after Libya declared force majeure at its Sharara oil field when an armed group forced a production halt at the oil field that will cause a loss of -315,000 bpd of crude output.  Another bullish factor is the outlook for smaller global crude production after Russian Energy Minister Novak said Russia will cut its oil production by 50,000 to 60,000 bpd starting in Jan.  Finally, signs that China and the U.S are continuing trade talks eased global trade tensions and fueled a rally in global equity markets, which improves confidence in the economic outlook that may lead to improved energy demand.  Crude prices fell back from their best levels Tuesday after the dollar index rose to a 4-week high.




General Advice Disclosure: Please note that the advice contained herein is general advice and is for the purposes of education only. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options, stocks, stock options and forex currencies can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You are reminded that past performance is no guarantee or reliable indication of future results. It has not been prepared taking into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.You should therefore assess whether the advice is appropriate to your individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. You should do this before making an investment decision based on this general advice. You can either make the assessment yourself or seek the help of a professional adviser. This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. The Vulcan Report accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents. For Related news and other stories please visit - http://www.wideawakenews.com/ For Related videos on our Youtube channel please visit - http://www.youtube.com/user/pulsescan72 Be Sure to register for faster updates and commentaries at - BLOG 1: - http://pulsescan.blogspot.com/ BLOG 2: - http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/466159-pulsescan72/ BULLS make money... BEARS make money.... PIGS get slaughtered! "TAKE WHAT YOU CAN .........GIVE NOTHING BACK"!!