Monday, October 29, 2018

10/29/2019 - **Overnight Markets and News**

**Overnight Markets and News**

*Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ18 +1.03%) this morning are up +0.77% and European stocks are up +1.02% on strength in technology stocks.  M&A activity gave the technology sector a lift as Red Hat surged 52% in pre-market trading after it was purchased by IBM for about $33 billion.  A rally in automobile stocks is also boosting European stocks on a report that China's National Development and Reform Commission, China's top regulator, is proposing cutting the tax levied on new car purchases in half to 5% from 10% for vehicles with engines no bigger than 1.6 liters.  European bank stocks are higher as well after quarterly earnings from HSBC Holdings Plc beat expectations. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -0.16%, Hong Kong +0.38%, China -2.18%, Taiwan +0.29%, Australia +1.11%, Singapore +0.32%, South Korea -0.95%, India +2.15%.  China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 1-week low on concern about weaker corporate earnings after data showed China Sep industrial profits rose at the slowest pace in 6 months.

*The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) is up +0.10%.  EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.05%) is up +0.10%.  USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.44%) is up +0.29%.

*Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ18 -0-060) are down -5.5 ticks.

*UK Sep net consumer credit rose +0.8 billion pounds, weaker than expectations of +1.2 billion pounds and the smallest increase in 6 months.

*UK Sep mortgage approvals rose 65,300, stronger than expectations of 64,700.

*Japan Sep retail sales fell -0.2% m/m, right on expectations and the first decline in 4 months.

*China Sep industrial profits rose +4.1% y/y, the smallest increase in 6 months.

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**U.S. Stock Preview**

*Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Sep personal spending (expected +0.4%, Aug +0.3%) and Sep personal income (expected +0.4%, Aug +0.3%), (2) Sep PCE deflator (expected +0.1% m/m and +2.0% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and +2.2% y/y) and Sep core PCE deflator (expected +0.1% m/m and +2.0% y/y, Aug unch m/m and +2.0% y/y), (3) Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (non-voter) speaks at a Chicago Fed banking conference, (4) Oct Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (expected +0.9 to 29.0, Sep -2.8 to 28.1).

*Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Akamai Technology (consensus $0.83), Essex Property Trust (3.14), Affiliated Managers Group (3.42), AvalonBay Communities (2.26), Everest Re (2.73), Vornado Realty Trust (0.98), Mondelez (0.60), KLA-Tencor (2.21).

*U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

*Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: H2O AI World London Conference on Mon, Gabelli & Company Automotive Aftermarket Symposium on Mon, Singapore International Energy Week on Mon, JAMstack Conference on Mon, GSMA Mobile Russia & CIS Conference on Tue, SecureWorld Denver Conference on Wed, Solix EMPOWER New York Conference on Thu, TRANSACT Tech San Francisco Conference on Thu, Data Center Summit on Fri.


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**Overnight U.S. Stock Movers**

*Red Hat (RHT -3.19%) surged 5% in pre-market trading after IBM agreed to purchase it for about $33 billion.  International Business machines (@symbolPercentChange(IBM is down nearly 6% on the news.

*Apple (AAPL -1.59%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Jeffries with a price target of $265.

*Martin Marietta (MLM -3.25%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Nomura Instinet with a price target of $220.

*Proofpoint (PFPT -15.59%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $114.

*Ford Motor (F -0.11%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $12.

*Core Laboratories (CLB -1.46%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel with a price target of $110.

*Ralph Lauren (RL +0.14%)was rated a new 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $149.

*National Oilwell Varco (NOV -3.03%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'In-Line' at Evercore ISI with a price target of $44.

*Colgate-Palmolive (CL -6.64%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase with a price target of $54.

*Lennar (LEN +3.98%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Wedbush with a price target of $50.

*CSX Corp (CSX -0.71%) may move higher initially this morning after Mantle Ridge LP reported a 5.1% stake in the company.

*The board of Pacific Premier Bancorp (PPBI -2.15%) approved a $100 million stock buyback program.
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**Market Comments**

*Dec S&P 500 E-minis (ESZ18 +1.03%) this morning are up +20.50 points (+0.77%).  Friday's closes: S&P 500 -1.73%, Dow Jones -1.19%, Nasdaq 100 -2.34%.  The S&P 500 on Friday sold off to a 5-3/4 month low and closed sharply lower on a slump in technology stocks, led by a 7% drop in Amazon and a 2% decline in Alphabet, after they both reported disappointing quarterly earnings results.  Stocks were also undercut by the University of Michigan U.S. Oct consumer sentiment index report of -0.4 to 98.6, weaker than expectations of unchanged at 99.0.  There was also technical selling as losses in the S&P 500 accelerated to a 5-3/4 month low.  A positive factor was U.S. Q3 GDP report of +3.5% (q/q annualized) pace, stronger than expectations of +3.3%.

*Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ18 -0-060) this morning are down -5.5 ticks.  Friday's closes: TYZ8 +16.00, FVZ8 +10.75.  Dec 10-year T-notes on Friday rallied to a 5-week high on the sharp decline in stocks, which boosted the safe-haven demand for T-notes, and on the +1.6% q/q increase in U.S. Q3 core PCE, weaker than expectations of +1.8% q/q.

*The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) this morning is up +0.10 (+0.10%), EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.05%) is up +0.0011 (+0.10%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.44%) is up +0.32 (+0.29%).  Friday's closes: Dollar Index -0.320 (-0.33%), EUR/USD +0.0028 (+0.25%), USD/JPY -0.51 (-0.45%).  The dollar index on Friday retreated from a 2-1/4 month high and closed lower on the decline in T-note yields, which weakened the dollar's interest rate differentials.  There was also weakness in USD/JPY which fell to a 1-1/2 month low as the slide in stocks boosted safe-haven demand for the yen.

*Metals prices this morning are mixed with Dec gold (GCZ18 -0.36%) -3.9 (-0.32%), Dec silver (SIZ18 -0.10%) -0.020 (-0.14%), and Dec copper (HGZ18 +0.88%) +0.021 (+0.77%).  Friday's closes: Dec gold +3.4 (+0.28%), Dec silver +0.070 (+0.48%), Dec copper -0.0135 (-0.49%).  Metals on Friday settled mixed with Dec gold at a 3-1/4 month high and Dec copper at a 5-week low.  Metals prices were boosted by the weaker dollar and by the sell-off in stocks, which boosted safe-haven demand for precious metals.  Copper prices fell on concern the sell-off in stocks will crimp economic growth and diminish demand for copper, and also on Chinese demand concerns after weekly Shanghai copper inventories rose +8,154 MT to a 2-1/4 month high of 148,943 MT.

*Dec WTI crude oil prices (CLZ18 -0.28%) this morning are down -32 cents (-0.37%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ18 -0.02%) is -0.45 (-0.25%).  Friday's closes: Dec crude oil +0.26 (+0.39%), Dec gasoline +0.16 (+0.19%).  Dec crude oil and gasoline on Friday closed higher on dollar weakness and the stronger-than-expected U.S. Q3 GDP report of +3.5%, which signals increased fuel demand and consumption.  Crude oil prices were undercut by the plunge in the S&P 500 to a 5-3/4 month low, which undercut confidence in the economic outlook and in energy demand.




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