10-13-2010 - SPY

THE VULCAN REPORT
Review of SPY - S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
as of Tuesday, October 12, 2010


Today's Price Action


Change    0.3600 (0.31%) prices closed higher than they opened.  with strong Bids going into the close.


An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle's real body completely contains the previous black candle's real body).  The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend.  It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.


If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with SPY - S&P 500 ETF), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top.  The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle's real body.






     MARKET SENTIMENT
  
PulseScan Swing Vix


PulseScan:     41.69
Swing Vix:     40.45


The Market Pulse is positive since it is trading above its zero signal line.The PulseScan crossed above the Swing Vix creating a UP Trend Channel as of    4 period(s) ago. The Swing Vix is above 39.  This is where it usually tops.  The Swing Vix usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security.  
A buy or sell signal is generated when the Swing Vix moves out of an overbought/oversold area.  


*The last signal was a Over-Bought Sell 13 period(s) Ago.
The Swing Vix has just reached its highest value in the last 14 period(s).  This is bullish.
      
  *Since the last Swing Vix signal, SPY - S&P 500 ETF's price has increased 0.84% , and has ranged from a high of 117.3500 to a low of 115.1900.


     MOMENTUM


     MARKET TREND - Currently the TREND is VERY-BULLISH - Heavy Accumulation.


        TREND STRENGTH - WEAK - RANGE BOUND (Prices have ceased trending and have become consolidated at this time) The market has put in a short term top. This means that the bulls are liquidating long positions thus taking some profit off the table.,


TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT
The close is currently Above it's PulseWave Cycle TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 111.6250
The close is currently Above it's Long Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 108.9429
The close is currently Above  it's Intermediate Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 112.0439 
The close is currently Above  it's Short Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 115.5380 




INTRADAY PRICE PROJECTIONS
RESISTANCE 116.9675
SUPPORT 116.0325


WEEKLY PULSE WAVE PRICE PROJECTIONS
PulseWave BreakOut RESISTANCE - 115.7900
PulseWave BreakOut SUPPORT - 113.1800




MONTHLY PRICE PROJECTIONS
BULL MARKET UPTREND - (12-18mo) PRICE TARGET = 143.1100
Long term Trend Line resistance is currently at - 122.1200
Long term Trend Line support is currently at - 111.6250


MONTHLY PRICE PROJECTIONS








BUBBLE PHASE 3 - (72mo+) (TULIP CRAZE CRASH IMMANENT) PRICE TARGET = 206.0800
BUBBLE PHASE 2 - (42-60mo) (MARKET FRENZY BUYING) PRICE TARGET = 185.0900
BUBBLE PHASE I - (24-36mo) PRICE TARGET = 164.1000










VOLATILITY
On 10/12/2010, SPY - S&P 500 ETF closed   
below the upper band by 4.8%.
This combined with the steep uptrend suggests that the upward trend in prices has a good chance of continuing.  However, a short-term pull-back inside the bands is likely.