10/8/2010 - SPY

THE VULCAN REPORT
Review of SPY - S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
as of Thursday, October 07, 2010


Today's Price Action


Change   -0.1400 (-0.12%) prices closed lower than they opened.  with strong Bids going into the close.


An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle's real body completely contains the previous white candle's real body).  The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with SPY - S&P 500 ETF).  It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.  


If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend, it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal.  The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle's real body.






     MARKET SENTIMENT
  
PulseScan Swing Vix


PulseScan:     28.08
Swing Vix:     26.13


The Market Pulse is positive since it is trading above its zero signal line.The PulseScan crossed above the Swing Vix creating a UP Trend Channel as of    1 period(s) ago. The Swing Vix is not currently in a topping (above 39) or bottoming (below -39) range.    
A buy or sell signal is generated when the Swing Vix moves out of an overbought/oversold area.  


*The last signal was a Over-Bought Sell 10 period(s) Ago.
The Swing Vix does not currently show any Failure Swings.The Swing Vix and price are not diverging.
      
  *Since the last Swing Vix signal, SPY - S&P 500 ETF's price has decreased 0.12%, and has ranged from a high of 116.5300 to a low of 115.1900.


     MOMENTUM


     MARKET TREND - Currently the TREND is VERY-BULLISH - Heavy Accumulation.There is currently no trend reading at this time.


        TREND STRENGTH - WEAK - RANGE BOUND (Prices have ceased trending and have become consolidated at this time) The market has put in a short term top. This means that the bulls are liquidating long positions thus taking some profit off the table.,
There is currently no trend strenght reading at this time.


TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT
The close is currently Above it's PulseWave Cycle TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 111.6250


The close is currently Above it's Long Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 108.9910


The close is currently Above  it's Intermediate Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 111.5803 
The close is currently Above  it's Short Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 114.7726 




INTRADAY PRICE PROJECTIONS
RESISTANCE 116.2285
SUPPORT 115.4915


WEEKLY PULSE WAVE PRICE PROJECTIONS
PulseWave BreakOut RESISTANCE - 115.7900
PulseWave BreakOut SUPPORT - 113.1800




MONTHLY PRICE PROJECTIONS
BULL MARKET UPTREND - (12-18mo) PRICE TARGET = 143.1100
Long term Trend Line resistance is currently at - 122.1200
Long term Trend Line support is currently at - 111.6250


MONTHLY PRICE PROJECTIONS








BUBBLE PHASE 3 - (72mo+) (TULIP CRAZE CRASH IMMANENT) PRICE TARGET = 206.0800
BUBBLE PHASE 2 - (42-60mo) (MARKET FRENZY BUYING) PRICE TARGET = 185.0900
BUBBLE PHASE I - (24-36mo) PRICE TARGET = 164.1000










VOLATILITY
On 10/7/2010, SPY - S&P 500 ETF closed   
below the upper band by 9.7%.
This combined with the steep uptrend suggests that the upward trend in prices has a good chance of continuing.  However, a short-term pull-back inside the bands is likely.