This could very well be another red herring like the NYT article from two weeks ago that proved to be a dud, but for what it's worthaccording to ABC's Jonathan Karl, the White House and the GOP have just reached a tentative deal as follows...
Debt ceiling increase of up to $2.8 trillion
Spending cuts of roughly $1 trillion
Special committee to recommend cuts of $1.8 trillion (or whatever it takes to add up to the total of the debt ceiling increase)
Committee must make recommendations before Thanksgiving recess
If Congress does not approve those cuts by late December, automatic across-the-board cuts go into effect, including cuts to Defense and Medicare.
In other words, virtually the same as the Boehner deal in the actual cuts, which will likely be back-end loaded (we expect about $10-20 billion in 2012 cuts), but the Democrats get what they want in that it will not require a second debt ceiling hike before Obama's re-elecetion as $2.8 trillion should last well into 2013. As for "future cuts", well, that's easily what Congress is so very good at. Indefinite future cuts that is.
Here are the outlines of a debt-ceiling deal that congressional leaders and the Obama White House are firming up in preparation for a possible announcement as early as Sunday afternoon.
In many respects, the deal will, if approved by all parties, resemble the contours of a short-lived pact negotiated last weekend by House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and Senate Majority LeaderHarry Reid, D-Nev. Obama rejected that deal, forcing Congress to wrestle with other inferior legislative options throughout the week.
Among the newest wrinkles, according to informed sources, is an agreement to extend the current $14.3 trillion debt ceiling very briefly to give the legislative process time to work without resorting to emergency, hurry-up measures.
President Obama has said he would only sign a short-term extension (days, not weeks) if it were linked to an extension of borrowing authority that lasts beyond the 2012 election.
According to sources, the Senate would use the military construction appropriations bill, one currently available for action, as the vehicle for the short-term extension. This element of the arrangement, like everything else, is subject to modification. But those close to the negotiations expect Congress to slow things down without jeopardizing the nation's full faith and credit. A debt extension of days would achieve that goal.
Two Suns or Two UFOs Seen Over Ocean at Taiwan on National News, UFO Sighting News. Date of sighting: May 2, 2011 Location of sighting: Pong Hu Island, Taiwan She says, "Tonight's headline story, we have a video given to us today, by a man who claims he saw and filmed 2 suns this afternoon." Male anchor man says, "The sun appears to be reflected in the clouds to cause an optical illusion, but the man who took this video insists he was seeing two suns." Man interviewed, "I know this sounds absurd, but I when I was filming my family, I saw two suns among the clouds and filmed it. I do not know how else to explain it." Source:Link Another two suns....What's the explanation for this?
rs an unsettling pattern in law enforcement interactions has emerged. American citizens, innocent of a crime, filming a public servant performing their duties in public, have been targeted and had their constitutionally protected rights destroyed.
The cases continue to pile up, some more disturbing and egregious than others. One of the most shocking examples is the case of the Las Vegas man, Mitchell Crooks, who wasbrutally assaulted by an on-duty police officer for filming the officer from his own property.
There is video of the event and while you cannot see the beating, the sound and pictures of Crooks after the fact are unsettling enough.
This represents one aspect of this disturbing trend: some of these innocent people film the police from their own property.
In another instance of individuals being arrested on their property, a young woman named Emily Good was forcibly removed from her property and arrested for filming Rochester, NY police performing a routine traffic stop.
To make matters worse, the police harassed the supporters of the woman who was wrongly arrested by giving frivolous tickets. While real crimes are going on in Rochester, the police prefer to spend their time ticketing innocent people who are supporting a member of their community.
In 2009, Father James Manship of New Haven, Connecticut, was arrested and charged with a misdemeanor for filming police officers in a store run by Ecuadorian immigrants. Father Manship claimed he was recording a case of police harassment which was part of a campaign of “systematic intimidation and racial profiling” against Latinos at the hands of police.
The evidence presented by Manship supporting the alleged campaign of harassment, violence, and terrorism carried out against Latinos in his community is compelling and the video evidence of his arrest is damning.
The following video, which clocks in at less than 30 seconds total, captures the moments before Father Manship’s arrest.
First the officer says, “Sir, what are you doing? Is there a reason you have that camera on me?”
To which Father Manship replies, “Yes.”
The officer asks, “Why is that?”
Father Manship replies, “I’m taking a video of what’s going on here.”
The officer then says something that is unintelligible as he quickly approaches Father Manship. Manship says, “Hm?” and the video ends.
One of the police officers involved, David Cari, falsely reported that he witnessed Father Manship holding an “unknown shiny silver object” which made him fear for his safety.
We can clearly hear in the video that Father Manship declares exactly what he is doing in a calm and friendly manner to which the officer responds aggressively. The video provides irrefutable evidence that officer Cari filed a false police report, a crime for which he needs to be held accountable.
However, in direct contradiction to the visual evidence you just witnessed, the East Haven Attorney Hugh Keefe responsible for representing the East Haven police department claimed the video was “clearly inconclusive.”
Keefe claimed that the video did not discredit the police report as Cari’s police report alleges that Father Manship fought with the officer when he tried to see what Father Manship was holding.
In April of this year, a man was arrested for “interfering with a police officer in the performance of his duties” when he was filming a cop from his own property.
The police officer trespasses onto the man’s property then illegally demands the individual’s phone as “evidence.”
When he refused to give his phone to a police officer when it was completely unnecessary to do so, he got arrested.
After 16-year-old Khaliah Flitchette refused to turn off her phone and stop filming the officers, one officer grabbed her by the wrist and forced her off of the bus.
She was then handcuffed and taken to two detention facilities, both a juvenile and adult facility, while one of the officers destroyed the evidence on her phone. Due to the fact that the officers had absolutely no legal grounds to arrest or detain the teen, they simply dropped her off at her mother’s place of work.
This 2010 incident was the third time the Newark Police had been accused of abusing citizens for attempting to film them in only three years. One CBS cameraman sued special police officer Brian Sharif after he claimed he was put in a chokehold and handcuffed for filming an anti-violence protest in Newark in 2008.
This is a case of the “we can record you, but you can’t record us” mentality of some law enforcement, because after the officer, David Rogers, announced that he had been recording the traffic stop, he noticed that Kelly had been recording him as well.
In an example of near absurd hypocrisy, Rogers then claimed that Kelly was in violation of the Pennsylvania Wiretapping and Electronic Surveillance Control act.
Rogers then demanded Kelly’s camera, which Kelly complied with. Rogers called the Assistant District Attorney to get advice on the situation. However, Rogers only gave a part of the picture and didn’t mention that Rogers had been filming the encounter as well.
Based on the incomplete picture presented by Rogers, the ADA said he thought it appropriate to arrest Kelly. Three units were called to the scene to arrest the completely compliant Kelly.
During sworn testimony, Kelly revealed that while being transported from the scene of the arrest, one officer commented, “When are you guys going to learn you can’t record us.”
Kelly was held for 27 hours in Cumberland County Prison and after several weeks the District Attorney dropped all of the charges.
In a case in 2007 in Boston, Massachusetts, a lawyer named Simon Glik was arrested for filming three police officers “struggling to extract a plastic bag from a teenager’s mouth.”
Glik thought the treatment was a bit rough and in his attempt to capture video evidence of the event was arrested and charged with illegal electronic surveillance.
In 2008, a webmaster at Boston University, Jon Surmacz, was arrested and charged with illegal surveillance when he filmed officers being unnecessarily rough when breaking up a holiday party.
Massachusetts has been plagued with these types of egregious infringements on our constitutional rights.
Michael Hyde was charged with illegal wiretapping when he used a secretly recorded video of a police encounter as the basis for a harassment complaint.
A Cambridge sound engineer by the name of Jeffrey Manzinelli was arrested and convicted of illegal wiretapping along with disorderly conduct for recording MBTA police officers at an anti-war rally in 2002. While he openly recorded the officer, which is completely legal, a 2007 court case upheld his conviction on the basis that he had a hidden microphone in his sleeve.
Peter Lowney was arrested and convicted of illegal wiretapping in 2007 when Boston University police officers claimed he had hid a camera in his coat during a protest.
In these Massachusetts cases, the key factor is if the individual had been openly or “secretly” filming the police. I take issue with this as I believe it should be our right to film every single encounter with any public official at any time with or without their consent or knowledge.
They can film us whenever they want, why can’t we film them? They are public servants not the other way around.
The harassment isn’t always immediate, evidenced by the case of Anthony Graber, a man who captured a police officer stopping him at gunpoint.
After he posted the video online, the house of Graber’s parents was raided by police and he was charged with violating wiretap laws. The police also confiscated his camera, computers, and external hard drives.
Eventually the case was dropped against Graber, like so many others, but the element of harassment and intimidation is still present.
The officer used the laughably unbelievable excuse of confusing his .40 caliber police issue firearm with a tazer. If this officer was not lying, which seems a bit ridiculous to me, then it shows that he was woefully incompetent and the training that police officers receive is far from adequate. Either way, it does not reflect well upon his department.
A New York Times article published January of this year profiled two cases in Illinois of people being charged under eavesdropping laws which carry a sentence of up to 15 years in prison.
One was a woman who had recorded two Internal Affairs investigators who spoke to her while she filed a sexual harassment complaint against another officer. The other was a 60-year-old man who used a recorder to capture his 2009 arrest for selling art without a permit.
Both of these encounters were non-violent, yet these individuals were treated by the justice system like felons guilty of violent crimes.
In an even more insane case, Michael Allison, a 41-year-old backyard mechanic, also in Illinois, faces up to 75 years in prison for the high crime of recording public officials.
Thankfully, the Illinois ACLU has stepped up to the plate and fought back against the tyrannical legislation that allows these kinds of cases to be brought forth.
One of the cases pointed to by the ACLU in their suit was the case of Adrian and Fanon Perteet who were passengers in a care at a McDonald’s drive through.
The officers realized they were being recorded and Fanon Perteet was arrested and put in a squad car. While this was occurring, Adrian Perteet took out his phone and filmed his brother’s arrest.
Because of this, both brothers were charged with violating the state’s eavesdropping act, which is a felony crime.
As AlterNet pointed out, this case will be a landmark decision for the rest of the 12 states that have these anti-democratic totalitarian police state laws in place.
There are very few people who support these kinds of arrests from my experience. I have yet to meet anyone who could manage to put forth an argument in support of these first and fourth amendment violations.
However, if you disagree with me and would like to tell me why you think this and why it is acceptable, please do not hesitate to e-mail me at admin@endthelie.com I would love to hear from you and I might address your concerns in a future article.
More and more people use their smartphones to record police misconduct. But laws against wiretapping are being used to intimidate and stop them.
Over Memorial Day weekend this past May, residents of Miami Beach witnessed a horrific display of police brutality as 12 cops sprayed Raymond Herisse’s car with 100 bullets, killing him. The shooting provoked outrage in the surrounding community, not only because of the murder, but because of what the police did afterward.
Officers on the scene confiscated and smashed witnesses’ cell phones; later, when they were confronted by the media, the police denied trying to destroy videos of the incident.
But 35-year-old Narces Benoit removed his HTC EVO’s SIM card and hid it in his mouth. He later sold the video to CNN, placing the police in the awkward position of explaining why they lied about allegations of cell phone destruction. More importantly, the video showed at least two officers pointing guns at Benoit, demanding that he stop filming.
Police brutality takes many forms around the country on a regular basis, particularly in poor and minority neighborhoods. Sometimes, the only method of accountability is a victim’s word (if they are still alive) against that of an officer. Unsurprisingly, the police officer’s version of the story is often adequate for a judge to dismiss allegations of wrongdoing, unless there is hard evidence of misconduct, such as a video or audio recording, which can be useful to unravel conflicting versions of police-citizen encounters.
Due to advancements in technology, the average citizen carries a digital camera in his or her pocket or purse, creating a potential army of amateur videographers on every street corner. A quick YouTube search of “police brutality” lists endless videos, often cell phone footage, of what appear to be police acting with unnecessary and violent force. Some of those videos have served a crucial role in bringing charges against brutality that may have gone unaddressed had it not been for bystanders recording.
One would think the fear of videographers on every block would be a powerful deterrent to police misconduct. However, legislatures are not taking this newfound power against police abuse lightly. In at least three states, it is illegal to record any on-duty police officer, even if the encounter involves you and may be necessary to your defense, and even if the recording is on a public street where no expectation of privacy exists. The legal justification is usually based on the warped interpretation of existing wiretapping or eavesdropping laws with statutes against obstructing law enforcement sometimes cited.
Illinois, Massachusetts and Maryland are among the 12 states where all parties must consent for a recording to be legal. Since the police do not consent, the camera-wielder can be arrested and charged with a felony. Most all-party consent states (except Illinois and Massachusetts) include a “privacy provision” that says a violation occurs only when the offended party has a reasonable expectation that the conversation is private. This is meant to protect TV news crews and people who record public meetings — where it is obvious to all that recording is underway — from accidentally committing a felony.
Massachusetts and Illinois are the only states that do not recognize an expectation-to-privacy provision to their all-party consent laws. While courts in Massachusetts have generally held that secretly recording police is illegal, recording them openly is not. Illinois, on the other hand, is the only state where the legislature specifically amended the state’s wiretapping law to make it illegal to record on-duty police officers without their consent, even in public.
Cases Keep Piling Up
Recording on-duty police officers has gained momentum in states around the country for some time now. But it’s only in the last few years, after several high-profile incidents, that the topic has begun to generate nationwide headlines and debate.
The U.S. Treasury Department met with bond dealers in New York to discuss next month’s quarterly auctions of notes and bonds and the debt ceiling.
The Treasury canceled its regularly scheduled individual meetings with bond dealers in favor of the group meeting, the department said in a statement today. All 20 primary dealers were invited.
The government is inching closer to running out of cash before an Aug. 2 deadline to raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling. House Republican leaders scrapped a vote on the debt ceiling bill late yesterday, fueling concern a compromise by the two parties won’t be reached before the deadline and casting doubt on whether the Treasury can sell more debt.
Officials are “talking to the Street, making preparations just in case they have to reschedule their regular auctions,” said Gary Pollack, who helps oversee $12 billion as head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank AG’s Private Wealth Management unit in New York. “This is a positive sign.”
The meeting was at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s headquarters in downtown Manhattan.
“There was a general consensus among all participants that Congress should act as quickly as possible to raise the debt ceiling for as long a period as possible to lift the cloud of uncertainty from the economy,” Treasury said in the statement.
NIA hasn't written about the whole debt ceiling issue over the past few weeks because in our minds it is completely irrelevant. Our elected representatives in Washington along with the mainstream media have been wasting thousands of hours of time and hundreds of millions of dollars debating a topic that has no meaning at all. The President, Senate, and House of Representatives are putting on a show to make it look like they care about cutting spending and balancing the budget. Except for a select few elected representatives like Ron Paul who care about protecting the U.S. Constitution and preserving what little purchasing power the U.S. dollar still has left, every other politician in Washington is putting on a complete charade in order to trick their constituents into believing there is a difference between the proposals from the Republicans and Democrats.
While our incompetent and corrupt mainstream media has been proclaiming there are major differences between the two bills proposed by House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, NIA believes John Boehner might as well be a Democrat and Harry Reid could easily pass himself off as a Republican. There are absolutely no meaningful fundamental differences between Boehner's plan that was approved by the House of Representatives yesterday evening, before being killed by the Senate two short hours later, and Reid's bill, which was just rejected by the House today in a pre-emptive vote before the Senate even had a chance to vote on it.
Both bills are estimated to reduce the U.S. budget deficit by approximately $900 billion over the next 10 years. Of the $900 billion only about $750 billion are actual discretionary spending cuts with the rest being an expected reduction in interest payments on the national debt as a result of either bill passing. When you have an unstable fiat currency that is rapidly losing its purchasing power and could collapse at any time, it is impossible to accurately project what our budget deficits will be 5 or 6 years from now, let alone 9 or 10 years from today. As far as the next two fiscal years are concerned, both proposed bills from Boehner and Reid are estimated to only cut spending by a total of about $70 billion in fiscal years 2012 and 2013 combined.
The budget that former President Bush submitted to Congress in early-2007, projected the deficit to decline in each of the following four fiscal years. Not only did the deficit not decline the next four years in a row, but it nearly tripled in 2008 and from there more than tripled in 2009. Shockingly, Bush's budget actually projected a $61 billion surplus in fiscal year 2012, but instead we will have a budget deficit of $1.1 trillion based on President Obama's latest budget, which takes into account unrealistic GDP growth next year of 4.86%.
U.S. GDP growth for the first quarter of 2011 was just revised down yesterday by 81% from 1.91% to 0.36%. The advance estimate of second quarter GDP growth came in at 1.28%, well below the consensus estimate of 1.8%. NIA is going to really go out on a limb and predict that second quarter GDP growth will soon be revised downward as well. If this is the highest GDP growth the U.S. could muster after the Federal Reserve's $600 billion in QE2 money printing, this should prove once and for all that monetary inflation does not create real economic growth and employment.
The U.S. Treasury as of Thursday night had $51.6 billion in cash, with its cash position declining by $15.2 billion during the previous 24 hours. It expects to bring in $172.4 billion from August 3rd through August 31st in tax receipts, but is scheduled to pay out $306.7 billion during this time period for an estimated deficit of $134.3 billion. The U.S. is scheduled to make its next interest payment on the national debt on August 15th and it will equal approximately $30 billion. Over the last 9 months the U.S. has spent a total of $385.9 billion on interest payments on the national debt, which means it is on track to spend a record $514.5 billion this year on interest payments alone. Just a tiny 30 basis point increase in the interest rate on the national debt would totally wipe out the deficit reductions proposed by both Boehner and Reid.
The U.S. Treasury has been able to pay its bills in recent weeks by using many different accounting gimmicks. However, come Tuesday, there will be no more accounting tricks left to play and the U.S. won't be able to meet all of its obligations. Without a raise in the debt ceiling, the U.S. government will have to prioritize who it pays using the tax receipts coming in, which will probably include the $30 billion interest payment on the national debt (to avoid a default), $49.2 billion in Social Security payments, $50 billion in Medicare/Medicaid payments, $31.7 billion in defense payments, and $12.8 billion in unemployment benefits. With $23 billion of the $49.2 billion in Social Security payments due to be paid on August 3rd and $59 billion in t-bills due on August 4th, the U.S. Treasury's remaining cash balance could dissipate very quickly.
The 10-year bond yield reached a new 2011 low yesterday of 2.785%, its lowest level since November 30th of last year. It is approaching its record low of 2.08% from December of 2008 during the middle of the financial crisis. With threats of a U.S. debt default making headlines across the world, investors are once again rushing into U.S. bonds as a safe haven. It is almost as if the whole world has gone insane. The world is fearful of the U.S. government defaulting on its debt and not being able to pay off maturing bonds, so as a safe haven let's just all rush into the very asset that will soon be worthless due to either an honest default or default by inflation. The U.S. dollar bubble is the largest and longest running bubble in world history and U.S. bonds are currently mispriced big time.
U.S. dollar-denominated bonds should be the last asset in the world to benefit from fears of a U.S. debt default. One positive sign that NIA members are having success at spreading our message to the world is that gold reached a new all time high yesterday, rising $15 to $1,631 per ounce, with silver rising $0.31 to $40.10 per ounce. Thanks to the efforts of NIA members who worked tirelessly to spread the word about NIA's economic documentaries including 'Meltup', 'The Dollar Bubble', and 'Hyperinflation Nation', a larger percentage of the global population than ever before is educated about the global currency crisis that is ahead.
During the financial crisis of late-2008/early-2009, gold and silver prices declined along with all other assets. Today, NIA estimates that half of the world's investors seeking a safe haven are buying dollar-denominated assets like U.S. Treasuries and the other half are seeking safety in precious metals. By mid-2012, investors will most likely no longer look at U.S. bonds and other dollar-denominated assets as a safe haven. During future times of uncertainty, NIA believes that precious metals will receive nearly 100% of safe haven buying, just like the U.S. dollar received 100% of safe haven buying in late-2008/early-2009.
Once the debt ceiling is inevitably raised, the U.S. Treasury will have a lot of catching up to do in order to get its house in order, and we will likely see the largest amount of debt ever sold by the U.S. government in a single month. With QE2 having finished at the end of June, the U.S. will be relying on foreigners in these upcoming record Treasury auctions. In our opinion, we are likely going to see interest rates rise at an unprecedented rate that will shock the world.
Don't believe the mainstream media's laughable claim that there is a shortage of U.S. Treasuries. It was just reported yesterday that Cambodia, one of the most rapidly growing emerging market economies with GDP growth this year of 6.5%, is moving away from the U.S. dollar, which currently accounts for 90% of their currency in circulation, in favor of its own currency the riel. NIA believes it is only a matter of time until China ends its currency peg with the U.S. dollar. The world is flooded with trillions of dollars in U.S. Treasuries that will soon have no buyers except the Federal Reserve. There is no chance of yields falling below record lows from December of 2008.
The mainstream media has been reporting all week that if the U.S. defaults on its debt as a result of a failure to raise the debt ceiling, it will be the first time that our nation has defaulted on its debt obligations. Most NIA members know that the real U.S. debt default already occurred in 1971 when President Nixon closed the gold window and stopped allowing foreign governments to convert their U.S. dollar holdings into gold. Since then, the U.S. currency system has been completely fiat and the national debt has increased by 3,400%.
For the past 40 years, the U.S. government has been running on fumes left over from when countries were able to convert their paper U.S. dollars into gold. The price of gold has increased by 3,900% during this time period, meaning the U.S. dollar has lost 97.5% of its purchasing power. Meanwhile, the median household income has only increased by 384%. In terms of gold, the median U.S. household is earning 87.9% less income today than they did in 1971. The U.S. debt default of 1971 was many times more significant than the pending debt default, because back then our foreign creditors expected to receive real money and not a piece of paper with no real value that we print. The average American family has experienced a dramatic decline in its standard of living since 1971. The U.S. dollar and its reserve currency status is currently serving as the last thread that is keeping our "house of cards" economy propped up.
The U.S. debt ceiling is very similar to a publicly traded company's authorized shares. When a public company consistently loses money like the U.S. government does, they print new shares just like the Federal Reserve prints dollars and when its total outstanding shares reach the shares authorized, the company's Board of Directors simply raises the shares authorized, which allows it to continue issuing shares and diluting shareholders. Since 1962, the U.S. has raised its debt ceiling 74 times. Any public company that needed to raise its authorized shares 74 times would likely have seen its stock price decline by 99.99% from above $10 to below 1 penny.
NIA is strongly against an increase in the debt ceiling because there are ways for our country to stay afloat and continue operating without getting deeper into debt. The U.S. is currently supposed to have 8,133.5 tonnes of gold reserves at Fort Knox. We don't know for sure if these gold reserves still exist because the last audit of our gold reserves took place in 1954 and we had the little minor issue of our real debt default in 1971. Assuming that all of our gold is still there, this gold is worth $426.5 billion at the present time, enough to cover our U.S. government's deficit spending for almost four whole months. The U.S. government also owns valuable land, buildings, monuments, and other types of Real Estate, that could also be worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Although we don't support selling all of our gold and Real Estate, if the U.S. government isn't going to implement real spending cuts that will lead to a balanced budget, we rather sell our assets than see the dollar-denominated savings and incomes of all Americans lose its purchasing power.
If we continue raising the debt ceiling and getting deeper into debt in order to pay back the debts we already have, we are defaulting on our debts through inflation. With gold at a record high of $1,631 per ounce, the market is clearly telling us that a default through inflation is coming. As the Chinese, Japanese, and our other creditors are paid back in U.S. dollars that are rapidly losing their purchasing power, they will be reluctant to increase their purchases of U.S. Treasuries in the future, which we desperately need them to do in order to fund our spending increases. With the Federal Reserve likely to become the Treasury buyer of last resort, the world will lose their confidence in the U.S. dollar and hyperinflation could potentially break out as soon as 2013.
NIA believes it is very likely that U.S. GDP will begin declining again in late-2011, which will officially put the U.S. in double-dip recession territory. In our opinion, the U.S. is still in the early stages of a hyperinflationary depression and the so-called economic recovery reported by the government and mainstream media has been completely phony and only due to misleading and manipulated economic statistics that don't factor in the real rate of U.S. price inflation. We expect Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to do everything in his power to avoid a double-dip recession at all costs.
By the end of 2011, we are confident that not only will we see QE3 under a new name, but the Fed will act to force banks to lend their $1.6 trillion in excess reserves. It is a joke that we are debating spending cuts of $70 billion over the next two years, when only very dramatic across the board spending cuts of 50% or more of the total budget will give the U.S. any hope of balancing the budget and avoiding hyperinflation. Best case scenario, if the U.S. government cuts spending by 50% or more in all areas of the budget including entitlement programs and is able to prevent hyperinflation, NIA still believes we will see the U.S. dollar lose 90% of its purchasing power this decade with the price of gold rising to above $16,000 per ounce.
The US has to default...well, we all know that the "geniuses" running US monetary and fiscal policy have limited mental capacity. If I recall correctly, Helicopter Ben once said that he did not know how to take an economy out of deflation, so, they would do whatever they could to keep deflation at bay. The time has come for DEFLATION...but, our "geniuses of policy" have figured out a way to stave off deflation...a nice US gov't default ought to do the trick! That should drive enough inflation into the system to rid the system of deflation! Here is my "evidence." (For those who do not know - M1 growing quicker than M2 is considered a "liquidity trap" - more people would rather have their money in cash than even in short term time deposits (CDs, money markets, etc.) with banks. Read 'em and weep...here is a link to the money aggregate numbers...even with the FedRes fudging numbers and "seasonal adjustments" - M1 has been growing quicker than M2 for over six months... http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/ Choose a date of your liking...check out even the FedRes's numbers..DEFAULT HERE WE COME!!! I think a "downgrade" would increase inflation...but, I do not think it would increase inflation enough to fend against deflation. The die has been cast...default!
Sovereign debt crises … economic slump … and now, earnings trouble?
Mike Larson | Friday, July 29, 2011
Things aren’t looking good on the debt crisis front in Europe … just a few days after the “great bailout!” Why? German officials continue to express concern about bailing out their profligate euro-zone neighbors.
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warned that the European Financial Stability Facility shouldn’t get a “blank check” to bail out everyone and anyone. The fund currently stands at 440 billion euros. Schaeuble’s comments caused bonds issued by Spain, Italy and other countries — as well as bank stocks across Europe — to tank anew.
What about our debt crisis here in the U.S.? Not much good news there either! With each passing hour, the August 2 debt ceiling deadline gets closer and closer. But the Republicans and Democrats continue to get farther and farther apart when it comes to hammering out a deal!
My take?
We might get a last minute debt ceiling deal, but it won’t satisfy the ratings agencies. So they’ll strip the U.S. of its AAA rating. Or we won’t get a deal, and all heck will break loose!
And the economy?
All signs point to an ongoing slump. In June new home sales fell for the second month in a row, while home prices plunged more than 4.5 percent from a year earlier, the biggest drop in 18 months. The Richmond Fed index slipped back into negative territory in July, at -1 versus 3 in June.
Most importantly, durable goods orders dropped 2.1 percent in June against expectations for a 0.3 percent rise. A key gauge of business spending fell 0.4 percent.
Bottom line: If you’re looking for macroeconomic or political catalysts for a rise in stocks, you’re going to need a magnifying glass! Worse …
The “Earnings Stool” Is Now Being
Kicked Out from under the Market!
Over the past few months, every time we bearish analysts talked about the slowing economy or the debt crisis, the bulls trotted out a counterargument: Yeah, sure that stuff is bad. But corporate EARNINGS remain rock solid!
The implication? Just stick your head in the sand and buy, buy, buy! Who cares if several countries are going broke and big-picture indicators suggest a new recession is right around the corner!
But now, even that fallback argument is proving to be pure hogwash. With the exception of a few company-specific success stories (Apple, Amazon.com, etc.), there isn’t much positive coming out of corporate America!
Prime examples:
==> Diversified manufacturer 3M (MMM) makes everything from Post-it Notes to auto parts disappointed some analysts on the profit margin and sales front in the most recent quarter. Moreover, it forecast full-year earnings of $6.05 per share to $6.25 per share, the mid-range of which missed the average analyst forecast of $6.31 per share found in a Bloomberg survey. That caused the stock to tank by the most in nine months.
Market bellwether Caterpillar said dismal second-quarter earnings were the result of slow economic growth in the U.S. and developed markets made worse by lower-than-expected demand in China.
==> Or how about Caterpillar (CAT)? The company makes heavy mining and construction equipment, and it sells into every major market around the globe. So Wall Street sat up and paid attention when the company missed profit estimates for the first time in 10 quarters a few days ago. The company warned of slower economic growth overseas, and its shares plunged the most in a single day in more than two years.
==> Then there’s United Parcel Service (UPS), the biggest shipping company in the world. Its shares fell the most in 13 months after the company warned of an “extremely sluggish” U.S. economy and weaker growth in select foreign markets.
==> Juniper Networks (JNPR), the second-largest maker of networking equipment? It whiffed on earnings and sales, causing its shares to plummet as much as 20 percent. Paccar (PCAR), the maker of heavy trucks under the Peterbilt brand? It plunged more than 10 percent after missing earnings targets.
==> Goldman Sachs (GS), the pre-eminent “Too Big to Fail” bank and brokerage firm? It slumped after missing by a country mile. And Boeing (BA), the gigantic military and commercial jet maker, forecast earnings per share of $3.90 per share to $4.10 per share for 2011. That missed the average forecast of $4.12 per share.
What to Do as Recovery Peters Out
For millions of Americans, hopes for a recovery have vanished.
My take here folks? The economic “recovery” that never really felt like a recovery to many Americans is petering out. Growth is slowing around the world. Europe is still embroiled in sovereign debt problems, despite spending hundreds of billions of euros on bailouts. The Federal Reserve is out of bullets to boost the economy. And the politicians in Washington can’t tackle the U.S. debt crisis to save their lives!
So if you still … still … haven’t heeded my warnings on the stock market, I urge you to do so now. Transport stocks … retail stocks … financial stocks … and cyclical stocks all look vulnerable to me, now that earnings are coming up short. Either sell down your equity exposure, add inverse ETFs as hedges, or both!
Also, make sure you own some gold.
With both Europe and the U.S. embroiled in debt crises, it’s absolutely essential that you hold gold bullion, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), or related investments.
