Monday, September 5, 2011

9/5/2011 - Here you go ... visual proof of significant increase in large magnitude earthquakes

 I believe that there is something unusual happening globally with respect to the frequency of, and magnitude of, earthquakes being reported. I know that there are also many in the opposite camp that would have us believe that nothing out of the ordinary is happening and that we're experiencing no more and no less than the so-called "average number" of earthquakes in any given year ... and that we're simply being scaremongers and reading/interpreting the reports incorrectly.

However, it's quite easy to show that this increasing trend in recent earthquake number and severity is factual and NOT just a figment of our overactive imaginations.

Below is a graph that was produced by a query to the 
Wolfram Alpha Computational Engine. This is a brilliant piece of software that allows the interrogation of multiple global data bases using simple and plain English query commands.

I was interested in seeing the overall pattern of earthquakes that have occurred over the last 11 years as I believed that would be a sufficiently long period of time in which to see if any trends were becoming apparent.
So I entered a search query to display all earthquakes that had occurred since 1 January 2001 AND that had a magnitude greater than 6.5 ... the following is the result and as they say, a picture is worth a thousand words ! Just take a look at the overcrowding happening on the right hand side of the graph.





As is clearly obvious, there has been a significant increase in the number and strength of earthquakes in the last 5 year period since 2005 - 2006. I believe this clearly validates the "gut feeling" that many of us have that earthquakes ARE on the increase. The increase is so large that since 2009, it's getting hard to make out the individual earthquake "dots" as there are so many of them that they're merging and blending into a red mass !


In fact, here's yet another high mag quake that just happened ...Vanuatu is reporting a 7.0 mag quake right now !


Surely this can't be "normal" earthquake activity ?


 I hope its not a super volcano eruption coming.







You could argue they use misguiding data, but it depends on the purpose of the graph. The fact is that earthquakes are concidered small untill they get close to 6 in magnitute.



And I just did a similar mag 7 (2002) GLOBAL search using USGS and got ZEROhits ... talk about inconsistent !




Heres some more data to look at also.


Earthquake Facts and Statistics




Dr. Michael Blanpied


He serves as executive secretary to the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)


He explains it this way...........


There are really three main reasons why we're seeing more news about deadly earthquakes. First is that the quality of reporting is much higher. Second is that we're able to record them better due to global digital seismic networks that report data in real time. Third is that more and more people live in quake-prone areas, so earthquakes are more likely to strike vulnerable populations than was the case decades ago.




Seismic Science: Is number of earthquakes on the rise?


And this means therefore that in the last 5 years or so, we've had what can only be described as a "quantum leap" in our ability to detect MAJOR and SIGNIFICANTearthquakes around the world and that therefore, we must have been missing many of them (especially 6+ and higher) prior to 2005/2006 ?

Seems quite a simplistic type of explanation in my opinion. I'm more than certain that the reporting technology/hardware in use between say 2000 and 2005 was more than up to the task of detecting EVERY 6+ earthquake.








Sorry if the pic is a bit long,or cut off. But this kinda puts it in perspective..





Here's 1973 on: 


It looks more like some quiet years in the 1980's than any increase in the 21st century.


If anyone is interested, here is a very comprehensive catalog. It really doesn't show much in the way of any trends.
earthquake.usgs.gov...


Statistic Graphs,of Earthquakes.

I believe the first graph is updated daily.


Another site that I thought might be beneficial to you.

Number of Earthquakes by Year 






 The number of earthquakes below magnitude 6.5 that are being detected has dramatically increased over that period of time.

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes however we can be fairly confident have been detected with some accuracy since 1930 and the introduction of the Woods Anderson seismograph in 1925, the instrument upon which Richter based his magnitude calculations.

Unfortunately so may people who come up with statistics on the incidence of earthquakes are guilty either intentionally or otherwise of cherry picking data.

First we must consider the cycle of great earthquakes. This is a cycle of somewhere between 35 and 50 years, possibly 40 that may coincide with one of the major sun cycles (subject of another day) but it is sufficient to say that taking figures from 1900 to today the cycle becomes apparent.

Looking at Mag 7, 8 and 9 that we can be certain about the graph looks like this:



If we look at the numbers and energy of magnitude 6.5+ quakes from 1930 (the ones we can be certain about) the graph looks like this:



The next set of graphs I did for another post but they illustrate the folly of using data ONLY from 2000. These do show an increase but we are approaching or at the top of another cycle. Actually i won't post the because it is a massive GIF that goes on for ever. You can see all the graphs here

A favourite point for selective reporting on earthquake numbers is 1975, just about the lowest ebb in the cycle. This type of manipulation is some what reminiscent of another group of 'scientists'. You can see more examples of manipulation in my post Do Earthquake Numbers Matter?

I am NOT slating the OP. People who are not deeply into this can be perfectly well excused for making honest mistakes and I have no problem with that at all.

My problem is with those who go out of their way to falsify the figures.

IF we are at the top of the cycle then next year will be much quieter. If we are not then you possibly may see another mag 9.0 but in my honest opinion the Japan earthquake was the top of the cycle.

With regard to that if you take away the Japan quakes at Honshu which are 'out of the ordinary' and that areas was nor majorly seismic before (hence building nukes?) then the figures for this year are actually way down.



Unfortunately the second link appears to provide inaccurate information. Not only does it start from 1970 which as I have said is a low point, the apparent energy graph is all wrong and is not I suspect based on energy but an erroneous assumption of earthquakes being 'bigger'.

Whilst Richter scales are subject to saturation at higher magnitudes, most earthquakes in the USGS Centennial catalogue have been converted to Mw scale which is a logarithmic measure of their energy in dynes/cm.

Using the calculation 10^(4.8+(Magnitude * 1.5)) we arrive at an approximate value in Joules for the energy release. It is this calculation that my own graphs are based on. You can see the difference!

On that site they said:

Estimated total annual earthquake energy release (magnitude 8 earthquake = 1 = 1,000 magnitude 6 earthquakes) in red; 7-year average in grey.


Yet despite this they show 1960 with the biggest earthquake the world has ever know as lower energy than earlier years?

This graph shows you the difference between that massive mega quake and the more recent ones.



edit on 4/9/2011 by PuterMan because: (no reason given)


On that chart of his the scale goes to 60 yet based on a mag 8 and 1, then a mag 9.5 (Chile) is 177 times stronger



No, sorry his figures are wrong.



His data has information either left out,or just wrong! So with that said,and based on knowledge that we know of,and not say 100,to 200 years ago of data,would you say that there is proof of significant increase in large magnitude earthquakes? I think its ebb and flow,but thats MHO.


Well, the government controls all USGS data ,so, yea, it could be misguided info and as far as whether an earthquake is a 2.0 - 9.0.... it's still an earthquake ! So the increase in earthquakes , in my opinion , has rose tremendously !



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